005
FXUS63 KEAX 100535
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
* ALTHOUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AREA EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
* THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
* SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR RIVER/AREAL
FLOOD CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST
AND A TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN MO WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A
25-35 KT LLJ HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY THUS FAR AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT, HAS FORCED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES,
MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LLJ WILL INTENSIFY
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS CREATING A
SETUP FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE PATTERN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NE AND
NORTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MO BETWEEN 6-7PM THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE RESULTING IN THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER, A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, PARTICULARLY IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT AND BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BUILD THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF
I-70 AND WEST OF I-35 WITH MUCAPE VALUES DIMINISHING AS STORMS
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL AGAIN STALL OUT TOMORROW MORNING, THIS TIME
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCAL POINT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AS SEVERAL MORE QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE PATTERN, SO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY (70-80%) REMAIN WET INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED
SOUTH OF THE AREA, SO THE SEVERE THREAT IN OUR AREA IS LOW.
WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL OPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE AND LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN CROSS THE AREA, THIS
TIME LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL AGAIN BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (60-70%) ON SATURDAY. WAA
INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH 60-80% CHANCES AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO EJECT INLAND BY MONDAY BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA.
AS OF NOW, THE TIMING SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A LATE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT THREAT, HOWEVER, THAT MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MORE
DETAILS IRON THEMSELVES OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A COLD FRONT FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THIS
ROUND OF STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, FLOODING MAY BE OF CONCERN. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 1-3" OF RAINFALL SPREAD ACROSS SEVERAL DAYS, SO THE THREAT
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BEFORE A RETURN TO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS WITH LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/LIGHTNING
THROUGH 08Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR BEHIND LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. KSTJ AND KMCI SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR CIGS BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY, BUT KIXD AND KMKC WILL
LIKELY HOVER RIGHT AT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAROTHERS
LONG TERM...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...MACKO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page