827
FXUS63 KEAX 110454
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SEEN EARLY INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE HIGHER
END.
* WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO/THROUGH EARLY-MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCUR/OVERLAP OVER THE COMING DAYS).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST, RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER OUR AREA AT
THIS TIME (2PM CDT). AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. THIS
FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE
WHOLE CWA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SHROUDED IN THICK CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
TONIGHT, THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING WAA INDUCED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW
1-2" OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE LOW. PRECIPITATION COULD
START AS EARLY AS 4AM CDT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA, SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER SHOWERS EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S. DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BRING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SINKING MOTION AND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (80-90%) SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES,
INCITING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A BROAD OPEN WARM SECTOR, WHICH
CREATES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35-40 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WHICH HAS
REDUCED CONCERN ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SETUP TO MONDAY,
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MANY DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE
RESOLVED, SUCH AS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE GEFS AND
GFS SHOWING A WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. IF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT THEN WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO BE
A DAY TO KEEP AND EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE
CONCERN FOR STORMS GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS REACHING THE KS-MO STATE LINE EARLY MORNING.
THESE WILL BRING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. A BREAK FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAROTHERS
LONG TERM...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page