280
FXUS63 KEAX 110858
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
* SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW,
WITH BETTER CHANCES APPEARING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO/THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL OCCUR/OVERLAP OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
TO THIS POINT IN THE OVERNIGHT, MUCH QUIETER AND DRIER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT. BUT, THAT IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WITH THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT/TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
REESTABLISH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM GENERAL WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, A 35-45+ KT LLJ HAS ALLOWED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAD BEEN WELL
ADVERTISED BY CAMS AND CURRENTLY UNFOLDING LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED,
INCLUDING MORE OF A NE/ENE TRAJECTORY ONCE ESTABLISHED AND
INFLUENCED BY MORE OF THE MEAN FLOW. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH
MORE OF A SW ORIENTATION, HELPING GRADUALLY PUSH INTO AND ACROSS THE
NW/N PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME LOWER-END/CASUAL
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES AS THIS ACTIVITY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH POCKETS OF MRMS 3-HR ESTIMATES OF >2.5"
AND 1-HR ESTIMATES >1.5" OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS. THAT WOULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED THE REJECTIVE RFC 3-HR AND 1-HR FFG AND WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE SOME TRAINING MAY BE SEEN AS THE LLJ
ANGLES INTO THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, THOUGH, THE POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM THE AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
LIFTS INTO IOWA AND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE MORNING,
MEANWHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANTICIPATED 45-50+ KT LLJ. ELEVATED NATURE
LIMITS SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT GIVEN RECENT RAINS LOCALIZED FLOODING
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LESSER CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY, BUT CARRIES A BIT OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT IN THAT IF SOME
CAN DEVELOP IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, THEY MAY CARRY HAIL/TOR
THREAT IF NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WORKING AGAINST THAT THOUGH IS
FOCUSED LIFT AND OVERALL WEAK TO MARGINAL WIND PROFILES FOR
ORGANIZATION. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST POSSIBLE OVER FAR NW
MISSOURI AND INTO NEBRASKA AND SW IOWA. CAMS ARE FAR FROM UNANIMOUS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL. THIS TOO IS NOTED WITHIN NEW SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BE SOLIDLY SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE A CUTOFF LOW MOVES INLAND OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF ANOTHER SURGING PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
QUITE LOW HERE GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED NATURE, HELPING
KEEP PROFILES UNSUPPORTIVE OVERALL. SOME TRAINING CONCERN HERE KEEPS
FLOODING A CONCERN, THOUGH WIDESPREAD ISSUES REMAIN UNLIKELY AS
ACTIVITY DOES PROGRESSIVELY GET PUSHED EASTWARD AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES DRIER INTO THE PLAINS.
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW AND DRY AIR INTRUDING AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BUT
ONGOING WAA ALSO BEGINS TO SET THE TABLE FOR BETTER STRONG/SEVERE
STORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT/OVERNIGHT, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT CAPPING PUTS THE KIBOSH ON MONDAY EVENING,
BUT POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IN THE OVERNIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS
AND LLJ INCREASES. ELEVATED NATURE WOULD YIELD PRIMARILY A HAIL
THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL APPEARS TUESDAY WITH CAP NOTABLY WEAKER,
DEPICTED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND PROFILES. THERE REMAIN
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE EVOLVES SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND TRAJECTORY THOUGH, SO DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO BE
CONFIDENT IN. A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY ALL HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THIS TOO IS REFLECTED WITHIN SPC DAYS 4/5 OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHTING MUCH
OF OR SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH 15% PROBABILITIES
(EQUIVALENT TO SPC SLIGHT). BY THURSDAY, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT
AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS, GIVING THE AREA A BIT
OF A BREAK, BUT MAY NOT LAST LONG WITH DEPICTIONS OF NEXT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FRIDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS NEXT
WEEKEND.
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES TEND TO RESIDE ON THE
WARM SIDE, TEMPERED SOME BY THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER, WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH MAJORITY OF
THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST, RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT OVER OUR AREA AT
THIS TIME (2PM CDT). AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. THIS
FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE
WHOLE CWA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SHROUDED IN THICK CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
TONIGHT, THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING WAA INDUCED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW
1-2" OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE LOW. PRECIPITATION COULD
START AS EARLY AS 4AM CDT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA, SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER SHOWERS EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S. DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BRING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SINKING MOTION AND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (80-90%) SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES,
INCITING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A BROAD OPEN WARM SECTOR, WHICH
CREATES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35-40 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WHICH HAS
REDUCED CONCERN ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SETUP TO MONDAY,
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MANY DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE
RESOLVED, SUCH AS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE GEFS AND
GFS SHOWING A WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. IF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT THEN WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO BE
A DAY TO KEEP AND EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE
CONCERN FOR STORMS GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS REACHING THE KS-MO STATE LINE EARLY MORNING.
THESE WILL BRING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. A BREAK FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CAROTHERS
LONG TERM...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...KRULL
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