438
FXUS63 KEAX 120457
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THE EVENING, GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (70-90%)
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY, GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
RAIN FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING
SATURATION AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A CLEARING SKY LEADS
TO SOME CONCERN WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS, WITH OVERALL
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF POP-UP
SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN KC METRO. HOWEVER, WITH LESS
ROBUST FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WARM FRONT, LOWER OVERALL SHEAR
IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE, AND LOWER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-
LEVELS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ORGANIZED, SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN FORM, THEY WOULD BE ELEVATED, WITH
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN STRONGER STORMS. CAMS STILL STRUGGLE TO IDENTIFY A
PRIMARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION, BUT PAINTBALLS THROUGH
THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW A PRIMARY CLUSTER OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY >40 DBZ ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MO/NORTHEASTERN KS.
THIS COULD BE IN RELATION TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ, WHERE THIS
REGION IS POSITIONED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET AND
COULD SEE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONGSIDE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (10-30%) IN THIS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE, THE
DAY WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, WITH SUNNIER SKIES AND SOME ERRANT GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA AS AMPLIFIED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE PLAINS, WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING US OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE INCREASINGLY
PLACED THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTHEAST, WITH
GREATER ASCENT NOTED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MO AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE RIDGE. ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED
RAINFALL, WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.75
INCHES. THE BAND APPEARS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY
TRAINING PRECIPITATION COULD EXACERBATE PRESENT SATURATION FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT SUNDAY EVENING
BEHIND AMPLIFIED RIDGING GOING INTO MONDAY.
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING FURTHER INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH ITS
COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING OVER THE PLAINS. AMPLE
INSTABILITY, ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR PROFILES CREATES CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WHICH WOULD INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF ANY STORMS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN ADEQUATE FORCING MECHANISM (SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT, SURFACE BOUNDARY...) IN FORECAST MODELS TO INITIATE
CONVECTION, EVIDENCED BY AN OVERALL LACK OF FORECAST
REFLECTIVITY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING MONDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS LEADING
UP TO THE EVENT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY, THE SHORTWAVE
AND ITS COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
GOING INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH A COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS DAY RELATIVE TO
MONDAY IS GREATER WITH A WEAKER FORECASTED CAPPING INVERSION
OVER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (AMPLE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY,
ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR)
WITH GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
DEVELOPING LLJ. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE EASIER RELATIVE TO MONDAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE PRESENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY, A MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW WITH THE PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AGAIN
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH GREATER
SYNOPTIC FORCING COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. BY
THURSDAY, AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD BEHIND THE
RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, PROVIDING A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
THE GREATER PRECIPITATION PATTERN BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES BRINGS BACK OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN BY THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST, SO FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
TIMEFRAME FOR BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT,
ESPECIALLY RELEVANT TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS' PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. A FEW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME DECAYING SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GUSTS ARE AT KMCI AND KMKC, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ERRANT GUSTS AT KIXD AND KSTJ THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CIGS. CIGS MAY FURTHER LOWER TO IFR THROUGH THE MORNING (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSTJ), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR AS OF NOW. AS PRECIPITATION
EXITS TO THE EAST, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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