095
FXUS63 KEAX 120914
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK
- A RIVER AND AREAL FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME,
OFTEN RELYING ON OVERLAPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
* SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
- A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY WITH MOST
AREAS ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.
* SEVERE STORM THREAT MONDAY IS VERY LOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES/OPPORTUNITIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AFTER A COUPLE/FEW SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS
OF N/NE KANSAS, SE NEBRASKA, AND NW MISSOURI, CONDITIONS TRENDED
QUIET INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA, GOES NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT DEPICTS POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DRIFT NE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING TO THE SW, CAN CLEARLY SEE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
WEATHER MAKERS MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON VARIOUS GOES
PRODUCTS, INCLUDING AFOREMENTIONED NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AND WV
PRODUCTS AMONG OTHERS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS TOO SHOW THE BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE AREA RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE AND DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUE TO BUILD NE TOWARD THE AREA. CAM/HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION ONSET,
NOW APPEARING MOST LIKELY AFTER 12Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SE TREND IN PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE STABLE,
RESULTING IN THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST CHANCES APPROXIMATELY ALONG A
LINE FROM THE KC METRO, UP I-35 INTO IOWA AND AREAS TO THE S AND E.
WHILE THERE ARE A FEW FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR A FLOODING THREAT,
INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWATS, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION,
AND PROLONGED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THERE IS LIMITED/LOW OVERALL
CONCERN. PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY VERY WEAK TO NIL CAPE (LIMITING RAIN
RATES) WITHIN THE BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. HREF PMM AND RECENT
HRRR RUNS SUGGEST SOME STRIPES OF >1" POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS UNDER
THAT. SO, SOME PONDING IN PRONE AREAS AND STREAM/RIVER RISES ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY DREARY DAYTIME PERIOD.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A DEGREE
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES TRAVERSE THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY,
NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE SW CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND TO THE NW OF
THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THIS WILL HELP YIELD A VERY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT MONDAY. WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE WAY
TO OVERCOME THE CAP, NEW SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK UNSURPRISINGLY HAS TAKEN
THE AREA OUT OF THE MARGINAL RISK. FORTUNATE, GIVEN THE PROFILES
OTHERWISE BEING QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE
GREATER ON TUESDAY. WHILE CAP MAGNITUDE MAY BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY TO YIELD A VERY
WEAKLY INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH, MUCH OF
THE AREA IS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN WARM SECTOR THAT WOULD TEND TO
REQUIRE SHORTWAVE OR OTHER FOCUSED LIFTING MECHANISM. THERE TENDS TO
BE NO CLEAR SHORTWAVE DEPICTION, WHICH WOULD THEN SUGGEST OUR MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS UPSCALE GROWTH FROM INITIATION IN EASTERN KANSAS
AND NE OKLAHOMA. REGARDLESS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED AND STRONG CONVECTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(>1500-2000 J/KG CAPE), >35-40 KTS DEEP SHEAR, ETC. TEND TO SEE
HAIL/WIND THREAT AS THE PRIMARY GIVEN LEAN TOWARDS UPSCALE GROWTH
SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. SEE SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AND DISCUSSION AS
WELL.
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS,
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA
THROUGH THE DAY, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL BE ANY ONGOING/PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
OFF/ON OR SEMI-PERSISTENT QPF FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO, HOW MUCH CAN OR WILL THE ENVIRONMENT BE ABLE TO
RECOVER BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID-UPPER TROUGH REACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING? SHOULD THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVER
SUFFICIENTLY, THIS COULD BE OUR ALL MODES RISK. OR, COULD JUST BE
MESSY WEAKER CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SPC DAY 4 15% IS
CERTAINLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY.
PHEW, AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS EAST
AND FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE COAST AT THIS TIME AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS POTENTIALLY
YIELDS RENEWED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER
PRECIPITATION, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA TO KEEP THE AREA NEAR
AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
HIGHS OFTEN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. A FEW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME DECAYING SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GUSTS ARE AT KMCI AND KMKC, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ERRANT GUSTS AT KIXD AND KSTJ THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CIGS. CIGS MAY FURTHER LOWER TO IFR THROUGH THE MORNING (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSTJ), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR AS OF NOW. AS PRECIPITATION
EXITS TO THE EAST, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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