947
FXUS63 KEAX 140913
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
413 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SPECIFICALLY TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
FRIDAY.
* WARM TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S) ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY MUCH QUIETER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO LIFT NE THROUGH FAR NE
MISSOURI AND INTO FAR SE IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, INCLUDING
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. SYNOPTIC SCALE CONDITIONS
FAVORING ACTIVE WEATHER REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, KEEPING DEEP
SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGER
TROUGH AND AN EXPECTED LEADING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL YIELD
ANOTHER ROUND OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
BUILDING INTO AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT VS YESTERDAY/MONDAY WILL
PUSH THE DRY LINE CLOSER TO AND EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HI-
RES/CAM GUIDANCE OF LATE HAS CONSISTENTLY BUILT/PUSHED THIS DRY LINE
INTO SW IOWA BY THE MID-AFTERNOON AND ANGLED BACK TO THE SW ACROSS
NW MISSOURI, NE KANSAS AND ONWARD SW. MORE ON THIS IN JUST A SECOND.
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL INITIALLY BE ROBUSTLY CAPPED ONCE AGAIN,
BUT ONGOING WAA REMAINS POISED TO YIELD HIGHS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
YIELD A NOTABLY WEAKER/WEAK CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BUT... WE
STILL REMAIN NOTABLY LACKLUSTER IN THE SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE LIFT
DEPICTIONS. SO, BACK TO THE DRY LINE. CONSISTENCY IS ALSO SEEN IN A
LACK OF INITIATION ALONG THE DRY LINE IN IA/MO/MOST OF KS WITH THE
FORECAST ORIENTATION LARGELY PARALLEL TO SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS IS NOTABLY DIFFERENT IN FAR S KANSAS AND N OKLAHOMA WHERE
ROBUST CONVERGENCE INTO THE DRY LINE IS ANTICIPATED. THIS "SHOULD"
BE THE INITIATION GENESIS REGION, AND ACTIVITY LIFTING NE TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN
NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS WOULD LIKELY YIELD A MULTI-
CELLULAR/CLUSTER OR LINEAR STORM MODE FOR THE AREA. GIVEN WHAT
TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY EVENING, WILL CERTAINLY NOTE THAT IF WE ARE
ABLE TO INITIALLY CONVECT CLOSER TO HOME OR IF DISCRETE CELLS
REMAIN, THE ENVIRONMENT IS IN MANY WAYS SIMILAR. ROBUST CAPE (>2000-
2500 J/KG), SUPPORTIVE DEEP SHEAR (>35-40 KTS 0-6KM), AND VERY HIGH
NEAR-SURFACE "STREAMWISENESS" NOTED IN HODOGRAPHS. REGARDLESS, VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH TORNADIC
POTENTIAL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE (THOUGH NOTED
LCLS ARE A BIT HIGH). TIMING FOR THIS WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON (IF WE
CONVECT CLOSER TO HOME) TO EVENING/NIGHT (THE MORE LIKELY KS/OK
INITIAL STORMS MOVING NE INTO AREA). THE DRY LINE POSITION WILL
LARGELY DETERMINE THE N/NW EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT, WHICH MAY BE
NEAR THE KC METRO. SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CATCHING THE DRY LINE
AND/OR LLJ INCREASING TOO LOOKS TO INITIATE SOME MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION, BUT WOULD GENERALLY BE IN A MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS TIME (EVENING/OVERNIGHT) FOR STRONG/SEVERE OVER
NW PARTS OF THE CWA. MAIN THINGS TO WATCH FOR THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE DRY LINE EVOLUTION (HOW FAR EAST?) AND ORIENTATION (AREAS OF
GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSE TO HOME?). SPC NEW DAY 1 SLIGHT
RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE AREA WITH NOTED SIG 1 HATCHING FOR
HAIL. ALSO NOTE SIG 1 HATCHING FOR TORNADO FLIRTS WITH FAR SW
FORECASTS AREA, NOTING THE BEST AREA FOR DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LESS POTENT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY
DEPICTED WITHIN HI-RES/CAM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS
TRANSPIRES GIVEN RELIANCE AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLUTION. FOR THE
MOST PART, THE GREATEST RAMIFICATIONS ARE FOR HOW THE ENVIRONMENT
MIGHT RECOVER OR STRUGGLE TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BOTTOM END. IF WE SEE MORE
SUNSHINE/RECOVERY THAN CLOUD COVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ROBUST
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE PREFERENCE IS
TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE/COOL FRONT HYBRID THAT AGAIN MAY BE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE KC METRO AND IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH, SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THE ENVIRONMENT
EVOLVES. SPD DAY 2 SLIGHT WITH NO NOTED SIG 1 (OR OTHER) HATCHING
INTO THE AREA.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE THURSDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE/TROUGH KICKS EAST, BUT
NOT REALLY COOLER, WHICH HELPS THE AREA QUICKLY REBOUND FOR YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY. OF NOTE
HERE, THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SETUP IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN
VARIOUS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. THIS AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS
IT DOES SO, TAKES ON A MATURE/NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION, HELPING
YIELD SOME OF THE IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS. DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS IN
HOW THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW, GENERAL LOW LEVEL FEATURES, AND
TIMING EVOLVES, SO SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT FRIDAY IS ABSOLUTELY A
DAY/EVENING TO PAY ATTENTION TO. THIS IS ALSO WELL REFLECTED WITH
THE SPC DAY 4 BUMP UP TO 30% (ENHANCED EQUIVALENT) OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PIVOTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE NOTABLY COOLER (MORE SEASONABLE) AND QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. INITIALLY, A LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR STRATUS DECK MAY CLIP THE
METRO SITES, ESPECIALLY KIXD, AS THAT DECK HAS BLOSSOMED IN THE
WAKE OF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GIVEN SOUNDINGS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW, BUT WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 00Z, CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM AND MOVE UP INTO THE AREA. GIVEN CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTION, HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WITH A
PROB30 FOR HIGHER INTENSITY/LOW VISIBILITY POTENTIAL. THAT
ACTIVITY MAY CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT/PAST THE END OF THIS
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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