885
FXUS63 KEAX 150529
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, TOMORROW AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
* WARM TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S) ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAS MOSTLY MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. STRONG/DEEP MIXING IS STARTING AND DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING
TO DROP AT TOPEKA AND INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FOR NOW IS
LEADING TO A FAIRLY DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND POOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA SHOW AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL FOR AN INCREASE IN MODEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN A FEW HOURS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODEST INVERSION AND MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS WITH ACARS INPUT
SHOW A CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 85 TO 87 F. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SETS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE DRYLINE UP FROM ABOUT
OTTAWA, KS TO ST. JOSEPH, MO BY 3 TO 5 PM BUT IT LOOKS TOO
DIFFUSE TO BE A SLAM-DUNK ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
MOST CAM GUIDANCE INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE (LIKELY SHOWN BY THE HIGH CLOUDS IN KS/OK)
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 4 TO 5 PM AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING - AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. BY THAT TIME T/TD
SPREADS WILL BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW AT
20 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CAM GUIDANCE (AGAIN PROBABLY
REASONABLY) FAVORS MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS THAT TRY TO ORGANIZED
INTO A FEW ISOLATED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH DEEPER CORES
PRODUCING A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HODOGRAPHS ARE
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME TORNADO THREAT, PARTICULARLY IF ANY
CELLS MAINTAIN DISCRETE ELEMENTS. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND SENDS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LAGGING BACK OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS
TO CREATE MUCH BETTER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE, AS WELL AS SPARKING
THINGS OFF EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE THREAT
(WIND/HAIL) LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY/DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER
AND THE TIME OF DAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WE GET BACK
INTO RETURN FLOW ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ON THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
RELOADING INTO THE MID 60S. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO IN THIS PERIOD BUT THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG/SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 120KT OR SO
SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMA MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
CREATING STRONG ASCENT AND SPINNING UP A 991MB OR SO SURFACE LOW
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THAT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE APPEARS TO BE YET ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS PERIOD (SPC MAINTAINS A 30% DAY 4
RISK). CONVECTIVE MODE MAY BE MESSY HOWEVER DUE TO STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL KINEMATICS. WHAT DOES APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE IN PLACE IS STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (850 MB
WINDS 50-55KTS) WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL-MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY SENDS THE
REGION BACK TO A COOLER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT MESSY AND UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS
DO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE CURRENT
OVERNIGHT, LINGERING INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THEY MIX/LIFT BACK INTO VFR. THE MORE UNCERTAIN AND MESSY ASPECT
THOUGH CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING. IT IS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME BUDDING SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND/AFTER
10Z THIS MORNING, WITH GENESIS NEAR TO JUST E/NE OF
KSTJ/KMCI. THAT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR WITH A VCTS MENTION FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD, AND ONE CAN EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY IN THEIR
VICINITY TO PRETTY QUICKLY DRIFT E/NE. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS MORE CERTAIN, BUT TIMING REMAINS A BIT
IN FLUX. WITH THAT PART IN MIND, HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO PERIOD
TO INDICATE THE CURRENT BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN QUICKLY
THEREAFTER BY AROUND 00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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