861
FXUS63 KEAX 011121
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
- COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FROST ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS ON BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND HUDSON BAY TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BUILDING INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED, EXPECT CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND COULD SEE SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED TO AROUND 100 J/KG, BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUILDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S F SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
COORDINATED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND MAY KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
WARMER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINING, BUT WARM ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
WE SEE ON SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING AS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAP
DEVELOPING. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KNOTS, 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ALSO CLIMBS TOWARDS 40 KNOTS. AGREE WITH SPC'S
ASSESSMENT TO OUTLOOK PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI IN DAY 3 MARGINAL
OUTLOOK LARGELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW WILL CREATE AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE HEATING ON MONDAY, COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE CAPE
VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL KNOCK 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BACK NEARLY 10
C.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 6K FEET
AGL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>024-030-031.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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