979
FXUS63 KEAX 021912
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
212 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
- HIGHS INTO THE 70S, A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE MONDAY
* SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- SPC DAY 2 (SUNDAY) AND DAY 3 (MONDAY) MARGINAL RISKS
* COOLER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING TREND TO END THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MANY WOKE UP TO CHILLY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING SOME AREAS
OF FROST (MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS). UNDERNEATH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS BLOSSOMED LARGE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
MIXING AND JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALL THIS TO SAY,
A COOL AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH HIGHS ON PACE TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. ENJOY!
SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY DEPARTS SE, ALLOWING SW NEAR SURFACE FLOW AND
GENERAL WAA TO RETURN. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE
70S ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLE LOW 80S FOR SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS A MODEST REBOUND IN MOISTURE AS TDS
INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S TO MID 40S/LOW 50S. A COOL FRONT
CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH AND
STALL WITHIN THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT AND SETUP AHEAD
OF THIS DROPPING FRONT IS WELL DESCRIBED BY THE CURRENT SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK ... MARGINAL RISK. SBCAPE DEPICTIONS CONTINUE TO TOP OUT
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF FRONT, BUT WITHIN A
MODERATELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN MANY CASES. GIVEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT IS NOT VERY SHARP/DEEP IN NATURE AND WILL BE SLOW, A COUPLE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER... WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/LIFT
(SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN NW FLOW) AND/OR CAN THE CAP ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY (ENOUGH MOISTURE?)? SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME WEAK
QPF RETURNS, SUGGESTING YES. AND EXTENDED HRRR RUNS (12Z/18Z) TOO
SUGGEST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SHOULD NOT BE SHOCKING THAT NAMNEST IS MOST ROBUST IN CONVECTION,
AND AN OUTLIER IN THAT REGARD. AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE WIDELY
SCATTERED DEPICTIONS IN OTHER AVAILABLE HI-RES GUIDANCE. WITH
SUPPORTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES AND PREDOMINANTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS,
WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS.
SW FLOW/WAA QUICKLY RETURNS/GETS REINFORCED MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
THIS WILL SHOVE THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT AND ALL HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER, AND STRONGER, APPROACHING COLD FRONT. YOU CAN
BROADLY THINK OF MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS "MORE" THAN SUNDAY IN SOME
CASES. MORE MOISTURE, MORE INSTABILITY, MORE LIFT/SUPPORT, MUCH MORE
STORM COVERAGE, ETC. BUT FORTUNATELY THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS LIMITED
(SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL) OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW REASONS INCLUDING...
OPEN WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED WITH LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
OVERCOME; FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER DARK (FROM THE NORTH);
LINEAR STORM MODE AND PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS TO BOUNDARY.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK. WHILE SOME TRAINING
STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SETUP AND SLOWING TO STALLING COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION, A NOTABLE LACK OF ONGOING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
FLOW/RETURN INTO THE BOUNDARY. A FEW WATER ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE,
BUT NOT CURRENTLY WIDELY ANTICIPATED.
ASIDE FROM COOLER CONDITIONS POST-FRONTAL, ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY/SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND
OFF THE SW CONUS CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO WIDELY FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE AREA TO REMAIN WITHIN A NW MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME, THERE WILL BE MORE NOTABLE HEIGHT RISES AND
THEREFORE WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES POISED TO RETURN TO THE
70S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD, INITIALLY
FROM THE NW TURNING W TO SW TO SSW OVERNIGHT. WINDS SETTLE OUT
OF THE SW/SSW WITH INCREASING SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS DURING
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S KTS LIKELY
COMMON LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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