884
FXUS63 KEAX 030829
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
- A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONE OF TWO OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE RIDGE HAS RETREATED TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT 5-
10 DEGREES OVER LAST NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WARM THIS MORNING IN RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB TODAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. WITH THAT SAID, 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS AS OF 08Z
THIS MORNING, SO WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO GET AMPLE MOISTURE
NORTH. HAVE CUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST, BUT COULD BE DELAYED LATER IN THE EVENING AS 30-45
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA ASSISTS IN DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, TRUE GULF MOISTURE DOESN'T OPEN UP
TILL LATE TODAY, SO DEEPER MOISTURE REALLY DOESN'T ARRIVE THIS FAR
NORTH TILL LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES. WHILE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, SHEAR IS PLENTIFUL WITH STRONG FLOW ABOVE 650
MB. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THIS WAVE LOOKS ILL TIMED MAINLY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW REORIENTS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ON MONDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS INTO THE
AREA. WITH AMPLE WARMING, COULD SEE INSTABILITY GROW TOWARDS 2000
J/KG OF CAPE. SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG WITH 30-40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. WITH MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, EXPECT THIS TO BE
A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
MONDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MIDWEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10C. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, A WARMER PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH THERE
IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY AMONGST SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THUS, THE
NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE-CHACE POPS SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
FEW TO SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE BY
AROUND 14Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BY AROUND 17Z AT STJ AND 19Z AT THE KC METRO
TERMINALS, VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BELOW 10 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY EVENING, EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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