306
FXUS63 KEAX 032347
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING; A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY DISCUSSION:
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. SURFACE CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN SOUTHWESTERLY THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS PROMOTING A WAA REGIME WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING DAYTIME
INSOLATION TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN SLOW THOUGH, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN THE FAILED INITIATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS STRENGTHEN, WINDS
SHOULD BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH
THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS. WITH INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR EAST-
CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCAPE AROUND 500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT
COULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION, ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALLOWING ELEVATED STORMS TO ORGANIZE. A FEW STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTWARD COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL SLIGHTLY ABOVE QUARTER SIZE, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SWODY1.
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE ONSET OF FORCING
BEING AVAILABLE. WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS, AND MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. AFTER THIS FIRST MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE PASSES, THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA PASSES
OVERHEAD, THIS ONE WITH STRONGER DCVA OVER THE PLAINS THAT WILL
ALLOW A MORE DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY, WITH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WARM-SECTOR AND BETTER THETA-E
ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE IMPACTS OF A CAP THAT WILL
HAVE BEEN IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS PRESENT, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO PUSH ABOVE 2000 J/KG LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGER H5 HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR AND
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT, ALLOWING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW SUBSTANTIAL WILL THE LIFT REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIFT THROUGH
THE WEEK, THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME STORM
ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES IS LEADING TO AN UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THIS IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL. CURRENT NBM
FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD IS QUITE
LARGE, RANGING FROM BETWEEN 67F TO 79F FOR MANY POINTS IN THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVEING INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 11Z MONDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASING A BIT TO 10
TO 12 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...BMW
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