345
FXUS63 KEAX 040456
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING; A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY DISCUSSION:
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. SURFACE CYCLONE IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN
SOUTHWESTERLY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS PROMOTING A WAA REGIME WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION TO SEND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN SLOW THOUGH, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FAILED INITIATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS STRENGTHEN, WINDS
SHOULD BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THROUGH THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS. WITH INCREASED LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND FAR EAST- CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCAPE AROUND 500 TO
MAYBE 1000 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION, ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALLOWING ELEVATED STORMS
TO ORGANIZE. A FEW STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EASTWARD COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
QUARTER SIZE, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SWODY1. LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE ONSET OF FORCING BEING AVAILABLE. WE
MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS, AND MAY
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
AFTER THIS FIRST MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE PASSES, THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA
PASSES OVERHEAD, THIS ONE WITH STRONGER DCVA OVER THE PLAINS
THAT WILL ALLOW A MORE DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY, WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WARM-
SECTOR AND BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE
IMPACTS OF A CAP THAT WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY THIS
WILL START TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS PRESENT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MLCAPE VALUES TO PUSH ABOVE 2000 J/KG LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER H5 HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR AND
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT, ALLOWING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW SUBSTANTIAL WILL THE LIFT
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER
TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LIFT THROUGH THE WEEK, THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
PERHAPS SOME STORM ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE SOUTHERN
CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES IS LEADING TO AN UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THIS
IMPACTS THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, BUT INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE, RANGING
FROM BETWEEN 67F TO 79F FOR MANY POINTS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CREATING VARIABLE WINDS AT KMCI, KMKC, AND
KSTJ WITH KIXD REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ALOFT, LLWS AT
40-50KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KMCI, KMKC, AND KIXD.
KSTJ MAY SEE BORDERLINE LLWS CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AS OF NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY
TOMORROW EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGING LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO OPTED
FOR A PROB30 GROUP.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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