872
FXUS63 KEAX 051730
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SOUTH OF I-70.
- LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TONIGHT.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION, BUT PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT QUICKLY DECREASED THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT BUILT SOUTH OF I-70. SHORT WAVES WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
MORNING TOWARDS DAY BREAK AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS PUSHES EAST PROVIDING LIFT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 650-500 MB. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, THOUGH SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5" IN
SPOTS SOUTH OF I-70, BUT THIS REMAINS BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO
AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDROLOGY ISSUES. RAIN SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY SEE A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, BUT
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 2-3 C, WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
WARM MUCH BEYOND 60 F TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, THOUGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH.
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, SHOULD SEE A BETTER
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY AFTER A COOL START, THOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND THE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
HUDSON BAY WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SITES. EXCEPTIONS POTENTIALLY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS
AS POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHRA PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TRIO OF KC
METRO TAF SITES. THIS WOULD YIELD SHORT-DURATION MVFR
VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS BROADLY >7-8KFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SETTLING OUT OF THE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING, AND HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30 IN RESPONSE
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CURTIS
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