576
FXUS63 KEAX 070755
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY BLOCKING ANY
GULF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25-35% NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RECENT RAINFALL, TEN HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS
RUNNING IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE- ABOVE CRITERIA FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES.
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BELOW 10K
FEET IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NET RESULT MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, HAVE WARMED FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THOUGH
VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SURFACE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE, STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER COULD LEAD TO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY; HOWEVER, MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL HEATING. WITH STRONG MID- LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR, A LATE AFTERNOON STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BEFORE THE THREAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
LEADING TO A MILD SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, AND
THEREFORE, AREA IS NOT EVEN CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED IN DAY 3 GENERAL
THUNDER.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT
DON'T LAST FOR LONG AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD TROUGH
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND PUSHING
EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THOUGH TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE WE BRIEFLY COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARGINALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF TOWARDS SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS AT
4-5K FEET DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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