188
FXUS63 KEAX 170707
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
207 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING STORMS THIS MORNING
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
- NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE TROUGHING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS AND
COMPACT VORT MAXIMA TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
KEEP FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY PROVIDING PERSISTENT WAA ALONG WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, MAINTAINING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG DCVA CONTINUES OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS, RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS LIKELY LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA
DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS, THOUGH THE REPEATED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS RELEASED SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, MASKING MOST SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR FINDING CLEAR SIGNS OF
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. AS OF 0630 UTC, A MCV HAS GENERATED A LINE
SEGMENT WITH BOOKEND MOVING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS / SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THIS HAS BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG AN REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST
DOES THIS HOLD TOGETHER. THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS HELPED TO AMPLIFY
THIS LINE SEGMENT. AS THIS DISSIPATES, SUBTLE H5 HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, THOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER
FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY STILL BE AROUND. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
CHANGE HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AGAIN.
NEXT H5 VORT MAXIMA MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF STRONGER DCVA WILL
CONCENTRATE TO AREAS OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT, ONE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS OF
KANSAS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 2000 J/KG FOR WESTERN
MISSOURI, WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALUES BEYOND 3000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE WITH A CAPPING INVERSION, AT LEAST FOR OUR ZONES. SOME
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER PEAK
HEATING, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN
AXIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE. EVENTUALLY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS, WITH RECENT HRRR CYCLES
SHOWING A QLCS MODE AT LEAST IN ITS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE MAIN QUESTION AS THIS
PUSHES EASTWARD WILL BE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AS STRONGER VALUES MAY
BE BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE LINE HOLDS STRONG INTO NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI, EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WITH MESOVORT GENERATION IF WE GET A
FAVORABLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION. EVEN AS THE MAIN LINE
PASSES THROUGH, STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR A MORE POTENT SETUP
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE ON MONDAY, AND FOR OUR COUNTIES
WILL DETERMINE IF ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
GET SURFACE BASED STORMS, OR IF WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LOW-
LEVEL JET TO KICK IN AND PROVIDE A ROBUST MCS OF SOME KIND. WITH
ROBUST DESTABILIZATION, IF THE CAP BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON,
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
POTENT WARM SECTOR IN EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF MAY H5
TROUGH AND STRONGER JET STREAK. AS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ELONGATE, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STARTS UP AFTER
00-01Z IN THE EVENING, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT. LATE
MONDAY EVENING, DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL, WITH A
ROBUST KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT KEEPING A MCS ORGANIZED CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW THE LOWER-
LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES. CERTAINLY FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES WILL BE PRESENT, BUT HOW WILL THE SHAPE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE STORM MOTION OR COLD POOL
PROPAGATION? OUR KANSAS COUNTIES ARE IN THE DAY 2 MODERATE RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE STJ
TERMINAL, BUT EVERYTHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KC
METRO TERMINALS. A LIGHT SHOWER COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE VFR. AREAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL SEE IFR
VISIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AFTER ACTIVITY CLEARS,
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF SUNDAY. MORE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-023-024.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...KRULL
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