430
FXUS63 KEAX 181152
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
652 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TONIGHT.
- FAR NW MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
EVENING, AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE STORMS
TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
HEATING UP ONCE MORE BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA THIS EARLY MORNING, WITH A FEW SPORADIC 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD 1+ INCHES OF RAIN
(ISOLATED POCKETS HAVE RECEIVED A BIT OVER 2"). THE LEADING CONVECTIVE
PORTION OF THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTION STALLING OUT TOWARD THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU BY LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9" PWATS IN THIS REGION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL, WPC HAS
UPGRADED THE NEW DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A MODERATE
FOR LINN COUNTY KS INTO BATES AND HENRY COUNTY MO (ALTHOUGH 00Z
SPC HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGIONS AND EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WSW DEEP LAYER FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE STALLED OR SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN IA INTO SE NEBRASKA AND NE KANSAS WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
AND 40+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE WINDOW FOR DISCRETE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SMALL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ARE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
NW MISSOURI (ATCHISON, HOLT, AND NODAWAY) AND NE KANSAS
(DONIPHAN) WHERE STORMS COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE
INITIALLY. A WELL DEVELOPED LINE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT BY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NW MISSOURI INTO NE
KANSAS, MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS INTO LATE TONIGHT, AT WHICH POINT SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD, ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL BULK
SHEAR THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR QLCS MESOVORTICES, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 2". DUE TO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A 40 TO 50% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END AT STJ BY AROUND 14Z
AND THE KC METRO TERMINALS BY AROUND 16Z. SSE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY LATER THIS MORNING,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT STJ BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z AND
03Z TONIGHT, MOVING THROUGH THE KC METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z
AND 05Z TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
REDUCING VIS SIGNIFICANTLY. STRATIFORM RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BY AROUND 6Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-
020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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