605
FXUS63 KEAX 181730
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TONIGHT.
- FAR NW MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
EVENING, AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE STORMS
TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
HEATING UP ONCE MORE BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUR
FORECAST AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL MO. SSE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
STJ BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT, MOVING THROUGH THE KC
METRO TERMINALS LIKELY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM LINE, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
REDUCING VIS SIGNIFICANTLY. STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL (30-50%)
TERMINALS WILL SEE REDUCED VIS AROUND 4SM AND BR BETWEEN 10Z AND
14Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-
020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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