912
FXUS63 KEAX 190916
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
* RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (70-
80%) OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WHICH HELPED USHER IN A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION HAS CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THIS SHOULD ALL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE
FRONT EXITING OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES NO LATER THAN
15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL INDEED BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL AID IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS ON THE CALM END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR THE NEXT 48 OR SO
HOURS. THE NEXT "WEATHER-MAKER", A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, CURRENTLY SITS WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERCAST CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING BEGINNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
LESSENED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SHORTLIVED, HOWEVER, AS CLOUDS BUILD
BACK IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING DURING A PERIOD OF INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EJECT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING
VORTICITY OVERHEAD AND PRODUCING LIFT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST'S FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MAX, CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, RESPECTIVELY. POPS ARE CURRENTLY
GREATEST (70-80%) OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN LIFT SEEMS TO
BE GREATEST, BUT POPS >50% ARE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND SHALLOW LAPSE
RATES WILL HELP PREVENT CONVECTION, BUT SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD PERMIT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AMIDST OTHERWISE
STRATIFORM RAIN. MEDIAN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT
CURRENTLY RANGE 0.75" TO 1" IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 0.5" FURTHER EAST.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MO/KS BORDER
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, SO WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW (<20%) AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER OF COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE COMING TO AN END. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF, AND THEN GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY, BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TONIGHT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST, THEN OUT OF THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ020>022-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-
023-024.
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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