040
FXUS63 KEAX 191934
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE.
MANY RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK*.
*DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
- A COOLER QUIETER PATTERN SETS IN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (40% TO 80%) WITH INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND (20% TO 30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
OVERCAST SKIES AND DRIZZLE DOMINATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SATURATED LOW LAYER LEFTOVER FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S STORMS AND A
NOTABLE INVERSION ALOFT KEEP MISTY CONDITIONS AROUND UNTIL
INCREMENTAL BITS OF SOLAR HEATING EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD
THE SURFACE HEATING UP THE AIR JUST ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FOG AND MIST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMPRESSION UNDER THE INVERSION ALSO KEEPS
NORTH WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY AROUND 15-25 MPH. COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM INTERIOR CANADA LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM ABOVE
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S GREATLY
CONTRAST THE 90S OF LAST WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PUNCTUATED BY TWO STOUT YET
RELATIVELY STATIONARY SYSTEMS. ONE, THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SE
CONUS COAST AND THE SECOND A DEEP, BUT SEDENTARY TROUGH NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCES ON
OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND TABBING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THAT INFLUENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO WANE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. THE BERMUDA HIGH'S INFLUENCE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WHICH
ALLOWED THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRING THE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS
REMAINS STOUT EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO THE FLOW AND KEEPING THINGS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS WEEK
AS A TROUGH DIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. THIS TIGHT
POCKET OF CVA COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STATIONARY
LOW IN THE SW CONUS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY MORNING (40-60%). FURTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTIONS SPUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH WHICH LOOKS TO BRING INCREASED
OPPORTUNITIES (70-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERTURBATION OF THE OVERALL FLOW THEN
FACILITATES THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STATIONARY SW CONUS TROUGH
MENTIONED EARLIER WHICH PROCEEDS TO MOVE IT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
CURRENT. EARLY PROJECTIONS SHOW THIS CYCLONE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COMPLIMENTARY WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS PREVENTS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
THIS DOES PRESENT SOME 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMING ACROSS THE CONTINENT AFTER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UNBLOCKED FLOW ENABLES SEVERALS
ATMOSPHERIC WAVES TO TRANSIT THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SYSTEMS TO PASS BY OUR AREA BRINGING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EDGES OF THE
REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
AGGRAVATION OF THE CURRENT FLOODING BEING SEEN IN AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. FORTUNATELY, THIS MIDWEEK BREAK SHOULD ALLOW SOME
OF THE SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD NORMAL
LEVELS JUST BEFORE THE NEXT ROUNDS OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
OVC AND BR/DZ PERSIST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BR/DZ SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS REMAIN BORDERLINE
MVFR TO IFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SKY COVERAGE LOOKS TO
OPEN A BIT. NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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