530
FXUS63 KEAX 202332
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY RECEDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO.
SOME DOWNSTREAM RIVERS HAVE YET TO CREST, BUT LOOK TO LOWER
THIS WEEKEND*.
*DEPENDENT ON ANTICIPATED RAINFALL.
- COOL AND DRY TODAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING (10-40%); MORESO, THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING (40-80%).
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED AFTER THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS COOL
DRY AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
NICE BREAK FROM THE DAYTIME WARMTH AND STORMY NIGHTS OF LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESIDE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TWO LARGE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN THE ATLANTIC, A SMALL CYCLONE HAS INFILTRATED
THE BERMUDA HIGH WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. WITH THIS LOW BARGING IN, ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
HAS OPENED UP JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE TRANSIENT FLOW OF WAVES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE WESTERN TROUGHS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS
FOR OUR WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH HAS BEEN
SITTING MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS EJECTING
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE AREA. THUS FAR, THE RELATIVELY
DRY, COOL, AND STABLE AIR OF THE RESIDENT HIGH HAS PREVENTED ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THESE PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD, FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY
REOPENING THE PATH OF GULF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVERNIGHT. THE ENABLES
THE SHORTWAVES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TONIGHT OFF ACROSS WESTERN KS AND OK. THIS
BEGINS A WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
PARTICULAR WAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AS RESIDENT DRY
AIR ALOFT INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS TEXAS WHICH
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY PUSHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE VARIABLES AHEAD OF THIS MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE LOOK RATHER
LIMITED KEEPING EXPECTATIONS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES COUPLED WITH CVA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT DO PAINT A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LONG LASTING RAINFALL
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GREATER OVERALL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF US-36. COINCIDENTALLY, THIS
ALIGNS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS DOWNSTREAM OF RUNOFF OF THE PREVIOUS
WEEK'S RAINFALL WHICH HAVE YET TO CREST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST A DELAY IN THE CREST TO AN INCREASE IN FORECAST CREST HEIGHT.
CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS DO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF WILL BECOME MORE REFINED AS
THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH PASSES BY, THE SW CONUS LOW GETS DISLODGED
AND ABSORBED INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. THIS OPENS UP THE CURRENT
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MULTIPLE SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
BY THE CWA BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EDGES OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES A LARGE 500MB TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW AND DIG ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ANTICIPATED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN A COMPRESSED CORRIDOR
OF FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO ACCELERATE WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY. THIS
ALSO FOCUSES THE FLOW OF SHORTWAVES, CVA, AND LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE
FAR OUT TO DIG INTO GREAT DETAIL SUCH AS THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH AND
SEVERITY OF STORMS AS THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND
DEPENDENCIES. MOST OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE CENTERED ON WHERE THE
AXIS OF THIS ACCELERATED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. REGARDLESS,
CONSENSUS ACROSS ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS PRESENT A SYNOPTIC SCALE
KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC SETUP WHICH LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES OVER THE COARSE OF LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...KRULL
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