795
FXUS63 KEAX 212335
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
- SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GRADUALLY BUILDING
IN TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING/AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
- CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK UP. SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN
LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
DURING THE AFTERNOON, A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS, WHICH HAS GRADUALLY
PROGRESSED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
ON RADAR HAVE FAILED TO REACH THE SURFACE DESPITE PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE PERSISTENCE OF A NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER
HAS KEPT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MO ALONG SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FURTHER EROSION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE
DRY LAYER FROM THESE EARLIER SHOWERS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1-1.5", SO EXPECTING SOME POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AS SHOWERS PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH MEAGER
MUCAPE, BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
DECREASES ANY CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED, SEVERE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW/MID-LEVELS, BUT ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS
FLOW SHIFTS MORE EASTERLY AND CUTS OFF CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING ALONGSIDE IT.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND REINVIGORATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST, WITH BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND A MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE REMNANTS OF
THESE STORMS COULD STILL IMPACT EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO, ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW (20-40%) AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DETRIMENTAL TO STORM SUSTENANCE (DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILE, LOW EFFECTIVE SHEAR).
SATURDAY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMPT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR BETTER THIS
DAY WITH GREATER MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND,
COUPLED WITH SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%),
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE US-36 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED
MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES, THE CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS
LOWER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AFTER THIS PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA, LEAVING SUNDAY/MONDAY RELATIVELY QUIET AS ACTIVITY
SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY, A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US, BRINGING CONTINUING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVIATE
IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, SO CONFIDENCE IN ONGOING
PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE LOW-TO-MID
80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOG POTENTIAL AT STJ
TERMINAL IN THE RIVER VALLEY. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER
RAIN ACTIVITY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...KRULL
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