562
FXUS63 KEAX 071736
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
(70-90% CHANCES AT THEIR PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING).
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN AND
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD AS MID LEVEL WAA SURGES NORTHWARD. THIS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL GENERATE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN WHEN EACH "ROUND" OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND FOR
MANY IT WILL LIKELY NOT FEEL LIKE INDIVIDUAL ROUND WITH DEFINED
BREAKS AND MORE LIKE HEAVY TO MODERATE RAIN WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO WHERE THERE HAS ALREADY
BEEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN. IT WILL TAKE A LOT LESS RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH IN COMPARISON TO CENTRAL MO WHICH HAS SEEN FAR LESS
RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, ITS HARD TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE
MOST RAIN. LOOKING AT MODEL QPF, CENTRAL MO SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN (INCLUDING THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EAX FORECAST AREA). EVERYWHERE
GENERALLY CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE THIS COULD FLUCTUATION AND THERE
COULD BE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT OVER PERFORMS GIVING MORE
RAIN THAN FORECAST. CONSIDERING ALL THIS, HOLDING OFF FOR NOW ON
AN FLOOD WATCH. SINCE ITS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR, THERE'S NOT PLACE TO DRAW A WATCH WITHOUT THROWING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN WHICH WOULD BE OVERKILL IN THIS
INSTANCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE CUT OFF
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LARGER SYNOPTIC FLOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
MORNING WILL BE LARGELY BENIGN SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING FOR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT(20-40% CHC). THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE CONTINUES WAA THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE. THIS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IS VERY CONDITIONAL. IF RAIN IS
SLOW TO EXIT IN THE MORNING AND INSTABILITY STAYS LOW THEN THIS
WILL LITTLE TO NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALOFT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PUTTING KS AND MO BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WITH SUSTAINED WAA
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND EASTERN KS. COMBINED WITH THE LOW 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
90S TO LOW 100S. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR NEXT WEEK
(ROUGHLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW ALOFT WHICH
IS THROWING SOME LOW CHANCES POPS IN FROM TIME TO TIME (10-20%).
CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN AND THE TIMING IS LOW.
LOOKING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE HAS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SOME
RAIN/STORMS. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED AS GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
SO LONG AND SHORT THERE IS A LIGHT AND THE END OF THE TUNNEL
WHEN IT COMES TO THE HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN WAVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. AFTER 08Z, STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED LARGELY ACROSS IOWA, WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AT THIS
POINT, THE THOUGHT IS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD BE FOCUSED
SOUTH, BUT COULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RISE AND SCALTTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PATTERSON
LONG TERM...PATTERSON
AVIATION...BT
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