719
FXUS63 KEAX 091147
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
647 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EVENT MIGHT EVOLVE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.
* CLEARING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VERY
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 F ARE
LIKELY.
* SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE MCS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS COMPLEX HAS BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND IS OUT RACING ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS WE SPEAK.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN IN THE SHORT TERM IT WONT PACK A PUNCH AS IT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE KC METRO AREA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MO. AS OF NOW THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
70 MPH GUSTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WITH HOW MUCH RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALL WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WHAT ADDS FURTHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT IS THAT THERE IS ACTIVE BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING
AS THIS MCV STARTS TO CURL UP A BIT.
ONCE THIS MCS HAS CLEARED THE EAX FORECAST AREA OUR EYE SHIFT
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS FURTHER WEST IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT THESE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER OR EVEN TRACK THROUGH EASTERN KS/NORTHERN
MO. THE HRRR LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS. IT HAS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND
FOLLOWING ALMOST THE EXACT SAME PATH AS THE CURRENT MCS. HARD TO
KNOW IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS WORKED OVER ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE
STORMS SUBSEVERE/BENIGN OR NOT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LLJ WOULD BE THE TOO THINGS TO KEEP THIS SECOND
LINE GOING AND GIVE IT SOME MORE POWER. IF THIS LINE MAKES IT TO
EAX THEN IT SHOULD JUST BE A WEAKER VERSION OF WHAT WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER WINDS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME QLSC ACTIVITY. TIMING OF THIS IS GOING TO BE GENERALLY
FROM 7 AM THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. THE ONLY OTHER MESO MODEL IN
FAVOR OF THIS IS THE RRFS, ALMOST EVERY OTHER ONE IS FAVORING
LITTLE TO NOTHING HAPPENING. GIVEN HOW SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
ARE HANDLING CONVECTION NOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT A SOLID 30% CHANCE
FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES RISE WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. WAA WILL STILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
THE RISING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE BREEZE ALMOST 30
MPH WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S F. WITH DEW POINTS
WELL INTO THE 70S, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100 F. THE FASTER SKIES CLEAR THE HOTTER THE
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICIES WILL BE. THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
HOT, HUMID AND STICKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
VICINITY OF MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL AGAIN GIVE US CHANCES
FOR HEAT INDICIES NEAR 100 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE TIMING WITH GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT MORE ALIGNMENT WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HOW PRIMED THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ITS LIKELY ALL HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE
TABLE. BY FAR THE BETTER SHEAR, CAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
TO BE TO THE NORTH OF EAX. REGARDLESS THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FROM SPC.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. SO... STILL HOT AND STICKY BUT SLIGHTLY LESS
UNCOMFORTABLE (RESULTS MAY VARY). TIMING THAT THIS STORMS EXIT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A BIG ROLE TO
PLAY HERE. THIS VERY CONVECTION WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE
STORM CHANCES THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW ITS VERY CONDITIONAL. IF
CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MORE STABLE THEN IF
THINGS CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. WILL HAVE TO PLAY THIS BY EAR,
BUT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, GOOD MOISTURE AND THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS WILL
BE A TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE GENERAL TIMING HERE. TAKE THAT
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AS SOME MODELS STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING
GOING IN MO.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCES FOR STORMS IS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC
THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WHICH
WILL IMPACT STORM MODE AND STORM STRENGTH GREATLY. AS CAN BE
EXPECTED, GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE HERE, SO ITS TOO SOON
TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ON TIMING OR SEVERITY. ONE BRIGHT SIDE
IS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO COOL OFF FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING (MOSTLY FOR IXD AND
SOUTH). OTHERWISE LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE TURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
SHORT TERM...PATTERSON
LONG TERM...PATTERSON
AVIATION...PATTERSON
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