939
FXUS63 KEAX 100837
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES.
* ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND, THEN MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS LATE LAST
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BUILD SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING TO NORTHWEST MO BEFORE GROWING INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THAT ROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO AND NORTHEAST KS. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL OVERSPREAD A HOT AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY CAPPING WILL BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON (3-4 PM) AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. MOST OF THE CAMS TEND TO DEVELOP A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF INITIATION WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE HIGH END HAIL POTENTIAL. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. MBE VELOCITIES ARE SOUTHEAST 20-30 KTS AND CAMS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, 1- AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ARE 1 AND 1.5 INCHES, RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE-LADEN
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS,
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY, BUT IF THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNS OF RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT THEN IT WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED. THIS
IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT LLJ ACROSS
EASTERN KS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE
BELOW 10 KFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ HEAT INDICES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS IA TO SOUTHERN WI BY AFTERNOON. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY MORNING
ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN MO. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE THE COLD FRONT'S SOUTHERN PROGRESSION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG IT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH NORTHERN MO. SIMILAR TO TODAY'S THREATS,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE MOST PROBABLE, WITH A TORNADO
OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVANCE IN, BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. RETURN FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY SATURDAY DEW
POINTS RETURN TO THE 70S. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THEN MAXIMIZES
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH. PWATS NORTH OF
1.75 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP SOILS
SATURATED. THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT A PARTICULAR AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
KS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING, BUT
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR TS FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES. IT SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONGER
LLWS FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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