029
FXUS63 KEAX 110849
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ON A 55 KT LLJ WILL FOSTER
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NE. AS TIME PROGRESSES, SUPERCELLS WILL
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHILE APPROACHING IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MO.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT NOW, BUT AS THE TRANSITION TO
AN MCS OCCURS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. THE
HIGHEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IA, BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRAZE FAR NORTHERN MO. SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS MAY
PREVAIL IN THIS SECTION OF THE LINE WITH THE LARGE HAIL THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LINE REACHES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE ONGOING FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHERN MO IS EXACERBATED. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED
WITH THE THOUGHT THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE MISSED FROM THIS
MORNING'S ACTIVITY. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TO
NORTHERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
MIDDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MO AND EASTERN KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
PLACE ALONG THE FRONT MID AFTERNOON, LIKELY STRETCHING FROM WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MO. NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST KS MAY
BE SKIPPED BY THE SECOND ROUND. THE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. SOME SLIGHTLY BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD NORTHEAST MO MAY AID WITH A BETTER TORNADO
THREAT THERE, OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AND THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL END. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
50S. CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY SATURDAY
BEFORE CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS OR COMPLEXES AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN WITH A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
NOTHING LOOKS TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A BOUNDARY PASSAGE CONTINUE FOR
FIELDS SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER WITH ELEVATED GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ACCELERATE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON LOWERING
CIGS AND FLIPPING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT; BUT THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...PESEL
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