454
FXUS63 KEAX 111716
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
INITIATION AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STARTING
A BIT EARLIER TODAY ACROSS KS AND MO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY STARTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE STATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON EXITING LATER THIS EVENING. FOR THE EAX FORECAST
AREA THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6-9
PM. FOR THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE UNCAPPED
WHEN LOOKING AT THE ACARS SOUNDINGS COMING OUT OF MCI. THESE
SAME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO RANGE FROM ROUGHLY
30-50 KTS. HIGHER SHEAR IS GENERALLY SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN MO
WITH SHEAR TRAILING OFF AS YOU GO SOUTH. WHICH TRACKS WITH THE
MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDING NEAR THE METRO WITH 0-3KM WIND SHEAR
OF 30 KTS (MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE VWP TOO). THERE IS A SIMILAR
TREND WITH SRH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
(~150-200) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO AND DECREASING AS YOU TRAVEL
SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. FOR NOW ITS A BIT OF A WAITING GAME FOR
STORM INITIATION TO BEGIN WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GET
THINGS GOING.
ON SATELLITE THERE IS AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SUPER CELLULAR WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. AS
INITIATIONBEGINS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, STORMS WILL UNZIP
DOWN THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY GIVING THE AREA AN NICE LINEAR
STORM MODE. GIVEN THE CAPE, SHEAR AND SRH, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT MORE OF A QLSC PROBLEM AT THAT POINT
(QUICK SPIN UPS). THIS WINDOW FOR ANY QLSC TORNADOES SHOULD BE
VERY NARROW IN TIME AS SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST MORE
CROSSWISE VORTICITY OVERTIME VS STREAMWISE. AS THE EVENT GOES ON
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WIND SHOULD BECOME THE
DOMINANT THREAT WITH DCAPE GENERALLY FROM 1200-1500 J/KG.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ON A 55 KT LLJ WILL FOSTER
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NE. AS TIME PROGRESSES, SUPERCELLS WILL
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHILE APPROACHING IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MO.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT NOW, BUT AS THE TRANSITION TO
AN MCS OCCURS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. THE
HIGHEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IA, BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRAZE FAR NORTHERN MO. SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS MAY
PREVAIL IN THIS SECTION OF THE LINE WITH THE LARGE HAIL THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LINE REACHES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE ONGOING FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHERN MO IS EXACERBATED. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED
WITH THE THOUGHT THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE MISSED FROM THIS
MORNING'S ACTIVITY. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TO
NORTHERN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
MIDDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MO AND EASTERN KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
PLACE ALONG THE FRONT MID AFTERNOON, LIKELY STRETCHING FROM WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MO. NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST KS MAY
BE SKIPPED BY THE SECOND ROUND. THE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. SOME SLIGHTLY BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD NORTHEAST MO MAY AID WITH A BETTER TORNADO
THREAT THERE, OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING AND THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL END. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
50S. CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY SATURDAY
BEFORE CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS OR COMPLEXES AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN WITH A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
NOTHING LOOKS TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY WHICH SHIFTS WINDS FROM SW TO NW.
GUSTS AROUND 30 TO INTERMITTENT 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SHRA AND
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE KC
METRO; HOWEVER, BETTER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...PESEL
UPDATE...PATTERSON
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