119
FXUS63 KEAX 121125
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL.
* QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
TO 5 TO 10 MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
TODAY A PLEASANT ONE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS
THIS EVENING, THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TO
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN MO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COMPLEX
WILL BE IN ITS DECAYING PHASE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE,
BUT THE REMNANT MCV MAY PLAY A ROLE IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHERN IA, AND NORTHERN MO. AN EML WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO EASTERN KS, WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5 C/KM EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO.
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
AMPLE CAPE DEVELOPING IN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO
PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AFTER THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN ON
ALREADY VERY WET SOILS AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE CONFIDENCE IN
STORM EVOLUTION INCREASES. THE STORMS WILL CLEAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOWING IN THEIR WAKE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALONGSIDE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL PROVIDE BRIEF AMPLIFIED RIDGING
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRY, COOL AIR
INTO THE AREA, KEEPING APPRECIABLE POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AND DAMPING DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S (A
VERY WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM OUR HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS PAST WEEK!).
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. ON MONDAY, THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ONCE AGAIN TO THE LOW 80S WITH PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS, BUT MOISTURE RETURNS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
SUBSTANTIAL AS THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEK, POSSIBLY OWING TO A
SIMULATED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BARRICADING GULF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEAMPLIFIES AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
INVIGORATES CHANCE (20-40%) OF POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
INCREASE POPS (40-60%) ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW
SIGNALS OF THE FRONT STALLING AND CONTINUING CHANCES (15-30%) OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THURSDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMPT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID-HIGH 80S
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE LOW-MID 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
SET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page