732
FXUS63 KEAX 122336
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL.
* QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE SHORT TERM IS IN FOR QUIET A CHANGE WITH THE MOST RECENT ROUND
OF GUIDANCE HAVING A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH NORTHWARD WITH STORM
CHANCES TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS WAA STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM, HRRR,& RRFS ARE BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND STORMS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG IT. WITH THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF WAA
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS WE
GET THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR STORMS THEY SHOULD ALL LARGELY
BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME GOOD MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. SO THIS WILL GIVE AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO SEDALIA AND SOUTH A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL. CAN'T RULE OUT SEVERE LEVEL
WINDS IF STORMS CONGEAL A BIT OR BECOME TOP HEAVY AND COLLAPSE
(DOWNBURSTS). RAIN SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AND WEAKEN HEADING
INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE SHOULD A BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EAX FORECAST
AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WAA REMAINING IN THE
MID TO LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD AID IN ENVIRONMENTAL
DESTABILIZATION FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
MO AND EASTERN KS AS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS ALONG AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PVA ALOFT TO FURTHER AID IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAA AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING TO GET SOME GOOD
UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LINE. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORM MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUPER CELLULAR TO LINEAR. WITH THAT ALL HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO.
LOOKING AT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL SPECIFICALLY, THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND GENERALLY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM US-50. THE FLOODING THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO START WITH TONIGHT'S ROUND OF STORMS AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE HIGH AROUND 1.5 UP TO 1.9 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN AXIS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
WITHIN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE A
LOWER CHANCE FOR PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE TRUE FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT GET RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DO GET HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT, ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A RELIEF BOTH FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDLY AND
FROM PRECIPITATION UNTIL ROUGHLY MID NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE
NEXT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE APART OF A
STRONGER LOW THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY. THIS STRONG LOW
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN NORTHERN CANADA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES EAST,
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND PUTS KS AND
MO ON THE EDGE OF RISING HEIGHTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC.
WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURN. WAA WILL RETURN OUT OF THE GULF AND SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW MUCH THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD OF IT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
BEGINNING TO SEE CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASE. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SSE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 MENTION.
DRY WEATHER RESUMES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY, BUT THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
PUSHING THROUGH ALL TERMINAL SITES AFTER 20-21Z TOMORROW,
IMPACTING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH REDUCED VIS AND LOWER CIGS
DURING TSRA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ028-029-037-038-043>045-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ057-060-103>105.
SHORT TERM...PATTERSON
LONG TERM...PATTERSON
AVIATION...PADGETT
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