501
FXUS63 KEAX 131720
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL.
* QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST, A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL PERSIST, PROMPTING SUSTAINED WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVERTOP THIS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE PRIMARY
WARM FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS STILL POSE
A THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
AMPLE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSING THREATS FOR
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
SOME CONCERN FOR FLASHINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN
AREAS.
GOING INTO THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECUPERATE INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SKIES CLEAR OUT PARTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS HAVE NOT SIMULATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM SECTOR STORMS WITH
RECENT RUNS, AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE
STORMS REMAINS LOWER (30-50%) OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GREATER CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS IN STORMS FIRING
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LATER INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
IMPACT THAT EARLIER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ON THE COVERAGE/TIMING OF
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT WITH ADEQUATE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS (GREATER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AMPLE INSTABILITY, DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WITH STORMS, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS (DAMAGING WIND,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES) WOULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH SEVERE WIND
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THESE CONCERNS, AREAS THAT HAVE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EFFICIENT
RAINFALL INDICATED BY HIGHER PWAT VALUES. WITH THAT CONCERN, A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CYCLE
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY, AND GENERALLY PLACE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY BEFORE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
MULTIPLE ROUNDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE ROUNDS APPEARS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY INVIGORATING
SCATTERED CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL INCREASE CHANCES (40-60%) OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES THIS DAY WILL
CLIMB AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS REACHING THE MID/HIGH 80S. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW/STALL THROUGH
THURSDAY, PROMPTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE MOSTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRIEF AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO THE WEST KEEPS REMAINING POPS LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH KSTJ RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS,
HOWEVER, EXPECTATION IF FOR THE BOUNDARY TO SURGE BACK NORTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO HAVE OPTED FOR PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ALL FOUR OF THE TAFS. MOST CONFIDENT TIMING
FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS 00Z TO 03Z AT KMCI AND
KMKC (AN HOUR EARLIER AND LATER AT KSTJ AND KIXD RESPECTIVELY).
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AT KSTJ, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE LOWER CIGS LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTHERLY WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STORMS THIS EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ028-029-037-038-
043>045-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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