009
FXUS63 KEAX 272353
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BESET THE REGION
WITH HEAT INDICIES ROUTINELY IN THE 105-110F RANGE. POOR HEAT
RELIEF OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID 70S. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
YESTERDAY'S STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH HAS REVERSED COURSE AND IS
NOW MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL PLAY OUT. THE 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF
TOP SHOWED THAT MODELS WERE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BROUGHT ABOUT BY BOTH THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SATELLITE
HAS SHOWN SOME CLEARING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH SOME STORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MORNING ACARS DO
SHOW SOME PROMINENT CAPPING IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER LONGER.
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
CAPE GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE METRO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL AND WILL CONTINUE ON THEIR NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS
STILL LOOKS LOW (20% CHANCE) WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSING MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WOULD FIND ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS. BULK SHEAR IS INITIALLY
LACKING TO START THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SHORTWAVE AFTER 4PM. THEREAFTER WE HAVE SOME HIGHER DCAPE VALUES
WHICH MAY LEND ITSELF TO SOME DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD A STRONGER STORM
DEVELOP. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT TODAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EMERGES ON SUNDAY AN LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO A HEAT DOME
ENGULFING THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL REGULARLY LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE ADDED IMPACT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
DRIVING DEWPOINTS UP WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICIES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. HEAT RISK WILL ROUTINELY BE IN THE MAJOR RISK
FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE EXTREME RISK BY
TUESDAY. DUE TO THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WE HAVE ISSUED AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IF THE BLOCKING
PATTERN DOES NOT BUDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/STORM (20% OR LESS) MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF
KSTJ. OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS
AFTER 06Z THROUGH 13Z WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40+ KT
NEAR 2KFT AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SSE 10-15 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT AND
GUSTS TO 30 KT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
SHORT TERM...BRITT
LONG TERM...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
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