465
FXUS63 KEAX 280756
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
256 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TODAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON AT 1 PM CDT AND REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
TODAY, BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. ANALYSIS OF 500 MB
CLUSTERS AND MID-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF ANTICYCLOLYSIS NOT APPARENT UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 90F ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK, WITH REFS
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE HOVERING AROUND 90% AREAWIDE TODAY AND
MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MID 100S WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 110F. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL, POTENTIALLY PERPETUATING
HAZARDOUS HEAT IMPACTS. WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEATRISK IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY, WITH A SIGNAL FOR EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4)
HEATRISK FIRST APPEARING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AROUND THE SAME TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF HAZARDOUS HEAT, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
EXTENSION IN TIME OR ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED IN
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
OUTSIDE OF HEAT, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AHEAD,
LIKELY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF RISING THERMALS FROM SOLAR HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE SIGNAL FOR STRONG GUSTS BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE
BY MID/LATE WEEK BUT POTENTIAL FOR ~20 KT GUSTS STILL EXISTS THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS IS MAINLY NORTH OF US-36.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO/IA BORDER, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL. AFTER SUNRISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO ~15 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD STRONG INTO THE LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...MACKO
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