394
FXUS63 KEAX 290821
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM
DAYTIME HEAT.
* MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT THIS WEEK WITH THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL INDEPENDENCE
WEEKEND (SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP TROUGHING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW
LEVELS, THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FLOW WILL INCREASE
SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTS, TEMPERATURES, AND DEW POINTS. TODAY, EXPECT
TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND GUSTS 30-35MPH. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S, THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SOME SPOTS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 100-110 RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM DAYTIME
HEAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
WEEK. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE REGION. GIVEN HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, HOT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND THE DURATION OF THE HEAT THIS WEEK, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST, WITH MUCH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD.
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING, VORTICITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEBRASKA. AS THESE STORMS
MOVE EAST, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE AND WILL DISSIPATE. IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A DISSIPATING
SHOWER OR STORM EACH NIGHT.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO
BROADEN AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS WOULD
HELP TO REDUCE HEATING OVER THE WEEK AND INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THOUGH THERE IS STILL POSSIBILITIES THAT
RIDGING PERSISTS, WHERE HEAT WOULD CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
20-30 KT AT TIMES, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF GUSTS NEAR 40 KT PARTICULARLY NEAR KIXD JUST AFTER SUNRISE
WITH MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS 2-3KFT AGL. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH INCREASE TO 40-50% JUST
WEST OF KIXD TOWARD KTOP MONDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...WILSON
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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