278
FXUS63 KEAX 292331
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF FROM DAYTIME HEAT.
- THE FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY FOR THE WEEK WITH ONLY A LOW
CHANCE (15-25%) FOR RAIN IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A HIGHER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%
CHANCE) ARRIVES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
DAYTIME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. A SURFACE LOW SITS OFF THE TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS AND THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 25-35+
MPH TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY WARMED THROUGH
THE UPPER 80S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE MAKING FOR A HUMID
AFTERNOON AND THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICIES IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
THERE IS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PATTERN WILL NOT SHIFT MUCH
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES OF 100-
110+ ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RELIEF. AS SUCH, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE, OFTEN CALLED A
RING OF FIRE, THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN
KANSAS REMAIN FIRMLY BENEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AND THE FORECAST IS DRY. CONVECTION MAY SKIM FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
RIDGE SLOW SHIFTS EAST. A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE
AND PASSES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF
NOTABLE CONVECTION TO THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND BETTER
DETAIL REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
QUICKLY REBUILD WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE SURFACE WIND
WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
55 KTS AT AROUND 2000 FT AGL AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING
AN END TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...WESELY
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