764
FXUS63 KEAX 300735
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HAZARDOUS HEAT THREAT CONTINUES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY EVENING.
* MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI HAS A LOW CHANCE (15-25%) OF SEEING RAIN/STORMS
MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING (CURRENTLY 30-50%
CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
DOMINEERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND OUR POSITION
BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS SURPASSING THE FORECAST VALUES
BY 3+ DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUS, THE
PRIMARY HEAT-RELATED FORECAST UPDATE INVOLVED A BUMP IN FORECAST
DEWPOINTS, BUT EVEN WITH THIS CHANGE, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL WIDELY
ON TRACK TO FALL NEAR OR WITHIN THE 105-110F RANGE TODAY. AN EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEATRISK "BULLSEYE" STILL SITS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND EXTENDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TOWARD US-65, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) HEATRISK ELSEWHERE.
WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DURING THIS STRETCH, MOST
WILL STAY DRY. A SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH HAS BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA WHILE A TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN THE
COMING DAYS, THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
DIP INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW WITH
BOTH OPPORTUNITIES (ONLY A 15-25% CHANCE). THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR CONVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A
SHORTWAVE RUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. MID/LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SATURDAY
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT DISPARITIES REMAIN
(POSITIONING, STRENGTH, TIMING, ETC.). LIKEWISE, THERE ARE QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE QUALITY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THIS
TIMEFRAME. REGARDLESS, THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST SHOT WE
HAVE AT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK, COMING IN AT A 30-50%
CHANCE AREAWIDE. ADDITIONAL DETAILS SHOULD BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE
FORECAST ITERATIONS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THIS TIMEFRAME DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
CONCERNING AS THE PRESENT HEAT EVENT, IT WILL WARRANT THE CLOSE
MONITORING OF TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING THE DAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW MO AND NE KS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...MACKO
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