893
FXUS63 KEAX 021945
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW, BUT SHOULD STORMS STRENGTHEN
THEN HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND THE HEAT INDEX IS ALREADY INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WARM FURTHER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 PM.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING AS AN MCS
MOVES ACROSS IOWA WITH CONVECTION TRAILING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE FADING AS IT REACHES
MISSOURI WITH LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, ORGANIZING SHEAR, AND
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET. AS SUCH, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH MORNING
CONVECTION IS WIND AND HAIL. BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE, DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY MORNING
CONVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LITTLE SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE AND
WILL LIKELY BE VERY PULSEY IN NATURE IF THEY DEVELOP.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS,
MOVING INTO MISSOURI OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE MCS DECAYS ACROSS
MISSOURI THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES. THE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON BETTER HAIL
GROWTH. AFTER MORNING CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAYTIME SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY, THOUGH HOT AND HUMID. HEAT INDICIES WILL AGAIN
REACH NEAR 100 IN NORTHERN MISSOURI TO 105-110 INTO CENTRAL MO.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. THIS
TIME STORMS HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A MORE ROBUST
SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DEEPLY
UNSTABLE WITH 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE WHILE 40+ KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BE
IMPACTFUL TO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MONITOR FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE READY TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS IF THEY ARE ISSUES. STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH HIGH PWATS AROUND 2", DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS OF 4000+ M, THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THE RIDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO REBUILD.
QUICKER REBUILD WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE SLOWER
REBUILD WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ028>033-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-103>105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ102.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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