211
FXUS63 KEAX 040538
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT
INDICIES IN THE 100-105+ RANGE.
- SCATTERED STORMS MOVED ENE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAYTIME, REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAIL OR WIND IS
POSSIBLE WITH A LOW SEVERE RISK, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING A
CONCERN FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE INFLUENCING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA
OVERNIGHT LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING. BY LATE MORNING CONVECTION BEGAN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION
ACROSS KANSAS PUSHED EAST. THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION MET
AND MERGED IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNCAPPED 3000+ J/KG SBCAPE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO PERSIST AS THE
RIDE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH LITTLE SHEAR HAS PREVENTED MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
LINE OF STORMS HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE BUT COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS
AS THE CONVECTION FADES HAS RESULTING IN A HANDFUL OF REPORT OF
40-50 MPH GUSTS.
MEANWHILE, AGITATED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS CONVECTION WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS CONVECTION WITH GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS LAYING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE I- 70 CORRIDOR WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE
AN EARLY INDICATION OF WHERE THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
REINITIALIZE, IN TANDEM WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL THROUGH THE DAY,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THESE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER AFTER THE
MORNING CONVECTION THEN A DEEPLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SETUP WITH 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR AVAILABLE TO HELP ORGANIZE STORMS WITH
ONLY AROUND 20KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM. STRONG WINDS WITH ANY
DEVELOPING COLD POOL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD TOMORROW,
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. PWATS APPROACH 2" AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER IF STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD BE A CONCERN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND FLATTENS WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PERIODIC ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE WORKS TO REBUILD CONVECTION CHANCES
COME DOWN AND HEAT INCREASES. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LESS ROBUST THIS TIME, SO WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO THE LOW 90S NEXT WEEK DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
-TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AT ALL TERMINALS. CURRENTLY
WATCHING TWO AREAS OF ACTIVITY ALIGNED TO PERFECTLY IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS WITH WEATHER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE NORTHERN
COMPLEX (BY KSTJ) HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 45-50
KTS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN CONTRAST, THE
SOUTHERN COMPLEX (BY DOWNTOWN TERMINALS) HAS ONLY BEEN PUTTING
OUT GUSTS OF AROUND 25-30 KTS. HAVE REFLECTED THAT TREND WITHIN
THE CRITICAL PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN CONTINUED IMPACTS THROUGH DAYBREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COMPLEXES MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE, AND CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO FULLY RESOLVE ACTIVITY IN A WAY THAT BOOSTS
CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED EVOLUTION. SO, WILL BE EXPECTING TO MAKE
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO KEEP UP WITH ONGOING
TRENDS... OTHERWISE, EXPECTING ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL
ENVIRONMENTAL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO GENERAL VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WEATHER
IMPACTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
057-060-103>105.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM...WFO EAX
AVIATION...SPG
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