665
FXUS63 KEAX 041907
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
207 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID-
TO-UPPER 80S) ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
AND HEAT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HAS REDUCED POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (20-30%) IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AFTER 3PM.
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE (15-25%) SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE STORY OF THE MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO AND EASTERN KS. A BOW ECHO HAS BEEN
PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
CLOUD COVER AND STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MO WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID-90S. AS SUCH, BOTH THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
AND HEAT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT HAS ROLLED
THROUGH THIS MORNING, UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS IN WHETHER THIS
SECOND ROUND WILL BE ABLE TO FORM IN OUR AREA AT ALL. THE CAMS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO PICK UP ON ANY CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
MORNING, SO AM RELYING HEAVILY ON CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PLACED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER AND
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND ARE MOVING EAST TOWARDS
MO. THESE STORMS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, BUT
WITH AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY, COULD IMPACT AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KC METRO. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(40-60%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THAT LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HASN'T BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
MOVING INTO TOMORROW, THERE IS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN QUITE LOW IN OCCURENCE AS ONLY
THE 12Z HRRR SHOWS ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AT ALL. BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS, TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 90F BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST WEEK, RESIDING IN THE UPPER 60S.
THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE
ARE ALSO SEVERAL BROAD BRUSH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL PROGRESSION, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE ACTIVITY FROM KS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PRIMARILY IMPACTING
MANY OF TAF SITE LOCATION, PARTICULARLY FROM KMKC AND KIXD AS
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING HAVING BEEN MOVING
THROUGH KIXD AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN KSTJ WITH -TSRA AND KEPT THEM IN PROB30 BUT THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM 18Z-20Z FOR THE
KMCI, KMKC AND KIXD, ESPECIALLY AS THIS INITIAL LINE MOVES
THROUGH. I HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 20Z-23Z
AS THE STORMS MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF KMHK CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. GUIDANCE DID NOT RESOLVE THE ACTIVITY WELL, BUT EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAFS SITES THROUGH 23Z. HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT FROM 20-23Z ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS BY 20Z. EXPECT
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE WITH VFR AFTER 00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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