692
FXUS63 KEAX 221059
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT 70-90% THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN,
WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S THIS WEEKEND, WITH 100+ DEGREE
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY MAKING A COMEBACK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS & SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, WHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITS OFF THE GULF COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. MISSOURI AND KANSAS SIT WITHIN A REGION OF NORTHWEST
FLOW, WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS NEBRASKA,
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES:
MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA, AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THERE IS
STILL SOME NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN NBM MEMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE FROM
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALL GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARDS MUCH DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN UPPER 70S AND MID-80S ALL THREE DAYS.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES GO BACK UP THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A NOTABLE UPWARD TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S SATURDAY-MONDAY. CPC
HAS 70-90% CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF JULY, AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 55-65%
CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN AND AROUND KANSAS CITY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT SOUPY
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ENJOY THE
COOLER, DRIER WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS!
RAIN CHANCES TODAY/THURSDAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE 700MB HIGH PRESSURE, WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
WELL AS POCKETS OF CVA BEING ADVECTED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT CIRCULATION. AS THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY
SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<10%) THAT
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS GET
CLIPPED BY SOME DECAYING SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MANY CAMS DEPICT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY
ON REFLECTIVITY, BUT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND, SO IF ACTIVITY DOES
PERSIST AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR AREA, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BEGIN AS
VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DON'T REACH THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID, THE
RAP DOES SHOW A COMPACT VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI BY THIS
AFTERNOON, SO BETTER FORCING MAY ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO BE
OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA LATE AND BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-49/I-29 DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK APART INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY,
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING REMNANT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING WITH TIME.
SMOKE:
HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE SET INTO THE AREA, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING TO PROPEL SMOKE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING IT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SMOKE NEAR
THE SURFACE, BUT SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MOSTLY JUST HAZY
HORIZONS AND POTENTIALLY A FAINT SMELL OF SMOKE EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING BEGINS. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD ACT TO
BRING THE SMOKE PARTICLES DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAYBE LEAVING YOUR
CAR A LITTLE DIRTY LIKE THE POLLEN DOES WHEN IT RAINS IN THE
SPRING, BUT RAIN WOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAR THE SMOKE POLLUTANTS
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND CLEAR THE HAZE OUT FASTER.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY:
WHILE LOCALIZED AREAS OF EFFICIENT/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A MORE CONDUCIVE DAY
FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI
AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, WITH THE MCS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OF US ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND REACH MATURITY AS
IT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASING
PLUME OF IVT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT POTENTIALLY OCCURRING DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE WITH 2+
INCHES OF PW AVAILABLE IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS, SO DESPITE
SOME CONTINUED QUESTIONS SURROUNDING COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
FRIDAY AND HOW FAST CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE AND/OR REDEVELOP,
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
PRESENT AND OVERLAP.
THE LOW-CONFIDENCE, BUT POTENTIAL HIGHER-IMPACT SCENARIO THAT
COULD UNFOLD ON FRIDAY IS ONE WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN
ALONG A PSEUDO-BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE
OF MISSOURI. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHETHER THIS
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR WITHOUT MORE DEFINITIVE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
RESOLVING MESOSCALE FEATURES, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
FRIDAY APPROACHES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL AXES OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY MAY ALSO PRIME THE
SOILS FOR FLOODING ON FRIDAY. NBM DEPICTS A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF
25-50% CHANCES OF >2" OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI,
INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT
STILL SURROUND FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT A LAYER OF DRY
AIR SHOULD PREVENT MOST TO ALL OF THESE SHOWERS FROM REACHING
THE GROUND, THOUGH VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE VISIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
STJ. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 06Z,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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