575
FXUS63 KEAX 232320
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-2" AREAWIDE. LOCALIZED
CORRIDORS UP TO 2-4" WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES RISE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES LIKELY (60-80%) BY LATE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
REMNANT ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. A PERSISTENT LAYER OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS PREVENTED ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SOME AUTOMATED
WEATHER SITES HAVE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS FROM THE
DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THEM WITHIN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD TO HEAT UP MORE THAN THEIR SURROUNDINGS BY A FEW
DEGREES.
CURRENT RAP ANALYSES SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF OUR
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
EASTWARD, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO FORM IN
CENTRAL KS OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AXIS OF DCVA/WAA.
WITH THIS AREA OF BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2" EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, A STICKING POINT WITH THIS FORECAST IS AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWATS 2-2.5") AMIDST DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS (>10 KFT), WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SHEAR ALONGSIDE THE
LLJ PROMOTING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS, WHICH COULD LOCALLY EXACERBATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF THIS IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHER POCKETS OF
1-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NBM AND SWATHS OF UP TO 5" IN THE 24-
HOUR HREF LPMM. WITH ANY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, LOCALIZED
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES/FLOODING WOULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN. HOWEVER,
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES PROGRESSING
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER TOTALS OVERALL FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE
GREATER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AS WE ENTER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING BACK WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND DRYING THE FORECAST OUT. HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGF)
INCREASING TO 60-80% BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WITH THIS CONTINUED THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT, HEAT HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW SHIFT CYCLES. BEYOND THE RENEWED HEAT CONCERNS, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE RIDE ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PAST THE WEEKEND. PRESENTLY, ANY THREAT OF
APPRECIABLE WEATHER APPEARS TO REMAIN OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, WITH SOME DEVIATION IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTION OF THE RIDGE'S POSITION, THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z INITIALLY ONLY
SLIGHTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. AS RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MORNING, WE'LL SEE SHOWERS GET HEAVIER AND VISIBILITY AND CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR. COULD SEE CIGS DROP TO IFR AROUND 800 FT AFTER
16Z (30% CHANCE). WILL HAVE A 20% CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...MCCOY
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