577
FXUS63 KEAX 241131
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPANSIVE RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 ANTICIPATED SATURDAY (SOUTH
OF THE MO RIVER) AND SUNDAY (AREA WIDE).
- MORE HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER,
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY TAMPER WITH HEAT
EXPECTATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
A HEAVILY MOISTURE LADENED AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REGION WITH CAM
ANALYSIS SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE 850MB LLJ IS
FORECASTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACCELERATING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL. THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS THE MESO WARM SECTOR AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA BY SUNRISE. MESO-ANALYSTICS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS THAN
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS A GEOGRAPHIC SCALE WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY, LOWERING BULK SHEAR, AND MINIMIZED LAPSE RATES;
HOWEVER, MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES PAINT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURE.
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERTICAL PLOT OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT, IN THAT THE LINES ARE MORE OR LESS VERTICAL. THIS IS LIKELY A
RESULT OF CONSISTENT WARM AIR (AND MOISTURE) ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION NEGATING THE LOW LEVEL EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ALSO A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS SEVERAL LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE ALSO NOT
BEING ENOUGH TO CREATE EITHER SURFACE INSTABILITY OR UPPER LEVEL
CAPPING. THIS CREATES A PROFILE WITH LIMITED CAPE AND AMBIENT
VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER, THIS ALSO PRESENTS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CAPABLE OF BEING MANIPULATED BY RELATIVELY SMALL FACTORS. RAIN
COOLED AIR ALOFT, AN ENHANCED AREA OF WARM AIR BELOW, FOR EXAMPLE
COULD ALTER THE PROFILE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTIVE STORMS GOING OR
DISSIPATE THEM. CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS CVA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TAPPING INTO THE SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN CREATING JUST ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WILL BE HOW THE APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLEX TO THE WEST WILL MANIFEST THE ENVIRONMENT. LIKELY WE WILL
SEE A MIXED COMBINATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ALTER THE AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO CREATE DEEP CONVECTION OR
MANIFEST SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS
MENTIONED EARLIER, HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
RAIN MOVES IN BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, RIDGING
BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY SHOWS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 105F+
HEAT INDICES SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO
RESIDENT SATURATION FROM FRIDAY'S RAINFALL; SO THEREIN LIES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN PEAK HEAT POTENTIAL AS PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. SUNDAY, THE HEAT EXPANDS WITH 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCES OF 105F+ ACROSS THE AREA AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING 110F. LOOKING INTO MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS CENTERING THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES WHICH PUT OUR REGION RIGHT IN THE PATH OF RIDGE
RUNNING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
MESSING WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTATIONS. IF STORMS DO PASS OVER,
RAIN AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER COULD TAPER HEAT; HOWEVER, IF NOT,
HAZARDOUS HEAT BECOMES MUCH MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
PRESENT WEATHER AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING TO CAUSE FLIGHT
IMPACTS THIS MORNING, WITH SITES REPORTING LOWERING CLOUD
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS -SHRA PASSES THROUGH. EXPECTING
SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER TO MVFR BY 14-16Z AND IFR AROUND 17-18Z.
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING
AROUND 21-23Z. A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE CAPTURED THAT WITH PREVAILING
SHRA LINES. -TSRA CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO GENERATE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER,
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF -TSRA IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME, SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE WITH THE IDEA THAT AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROPERLY CAPTURE TRENDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 5-10
KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...SPG
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