510
FXUS63 KEAX 250400
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, AND REGION-WIDE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO AS OF 18Z IS EXPECTED TO WORK EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN STORM
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CAMS HAVE
OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY,
LARGELY FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED, BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW FOR
A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING POP UP STORM. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SUBSEVERE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED BUILD HEAT AND HUMIDITY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD FURTHER ON SATURDAY, AND HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 SATURDAY. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AND HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AREA WIDE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A FEW RIDGE RIDGING
SHORT WAVES, ONE THAT MAY RESULT IN AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THROUGH COLLABORATION, HAVE SIDED
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITING LINGERING IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.
LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS LATE INTO THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH SHORTWAVES CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
WAVES, LEFT THE MODEL BLEND AS IS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERIODIC LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE 06Z ISSUANCE, KMCI, KMKC, AND KIXD WERE ALLOWED PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE KSTJ WILL REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. A CLUTTERED CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT; AS IT DOES SO, BRIEF AND
TRANSIENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
LOW (~20%) CHANCE OF FOG ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF
TERMINALS BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ028-
029-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ025-
102.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ057-
060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...MACKO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page