038
FXUS63 KEAX 090838
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR PERSISTENT DANGEROUS HEAT IS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE A EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND AS SUCH, HAVE TAKEN A DAY
BY DAY APPROACH TO HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US IS GOING TO LEAD TO
HEAT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK; HOWEVER, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CHALLENGE THE POTENTIAL
OF REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING FROM THE
PANHANDLE OF TX INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED SOMEWHERE NEAR 700 MB. THESE
STORMS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB SEVERE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, PUSHING SOUTHEAST IN TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY FAIRLY LIGHT, LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT IN
AREAS WHERE THERE IS SOME TRAINING, COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPROACH AN INCH. STORMS SHOULD LARGELY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE LEADING TO GRADUAL CLEARING.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH SGF AND LZK DISPLAYED ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. ELEVATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD
ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FUEL LEADING TO MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
SOLAR HEATING TODAY. WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO WARM TOWARDS
105 F THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE COORDINATED A HEAT ADVISORY
REGIONWIDE FOR TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID-WEEK.
AS A RESULT, HAVE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORTWAVE BUILDING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN TONIGHT LEADING TO
MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER/ELEVATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND AS A RESULT, DON'T HAVE
HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI BEYOND TODAY- DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL.
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE ON TUESDAY LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. WHERE THE CONVECTION DOES
NOT DEVELOP, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST (MOST
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MO). NORTHERN MISSOURI REMAINS OUTLOOKED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE TEMPERATE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS. ROBUST CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SW IOWA LATE
THIS EVENING, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE
IOWA LINE INTO NW MISSOURI. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE STJ AREA BY AROUND 8Z, WITH THESE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE KC METRO TERMINAL BY AROUND 11Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ025-102>105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ057-060.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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