697
FXUS63 KEAX 130357
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND FOR SOME AREAS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF US-136 ALONG AND WEST OF US-65.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD MITIGATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HEAT CONCERNS CONTINUE UNDER A MOSTLY UNCHANGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE SAME STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LINGERING IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE MITIGATED MUCH OF THE HEAT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED FOR SULLIVAN, ADAIR, LINN, AND MACON COUNTIES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS RETAINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THESE COUNTIES DUE TO
GREATER RECOVERY DURING THE SOLAR HEATING PERIOD. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR THE KC METRO WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WHEREAS THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FURTHER SOUTH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN EAST/WEST BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MORNING. DESPITE ROUGHLY
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, POOR SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ADEQUATE
ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, BUT
SOME MORE RECENT RUNS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS, SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF OVER THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS, GROWING
UPSCALE OVER TIME LEADING TO AN MCS ROLLING THROUGH MUCH OF NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT, WE
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE STORMS CROSSING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE 15-30% POPS IN OUR
NORTHERN FRINGES TOMORROW MORNING BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE
NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
TAP INTO A LOCALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI, AN AREA THAT HAS FACED THE BRUNT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THESE LAST FEW DAYS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTH/NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DO NOT END TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET TOMORROW EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ONCE AGAIN
RENEWING STORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH THAT IS MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON OR
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS, WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT STORMS ONCE AGAIN AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENCOMPASSING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. GENERALLY, POPS ARE BETWEEN 15-30% OVER THIS TIMEFRAME,
PEAKING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
A MORE WIDESPREAD "COOLDOWN" LOOKS PROBABLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY RESULT
IN A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COOLER IN OUR FAR NORTH COMPARED TO OUR
FAR SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
MUCH THE SAME CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS BEING VFR
CONDITIONS AND ANY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION OR NON-VFR CHANCES
TENDING TO REMAIN DISPLACED NORTHWARD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
SETTLE OUT OF THE SE TO S UP TO AROUND 10 KTS. DURING DAYTIME,
KC METRO SITES MAY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT ABOVE 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. KSTJ WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER, BUT
TOO SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED UP TO AROUND 10 KTS. CLOUD COVER TO
REMAIN WELL IN VFR RANGE WITH MUCH OF IT RESIDING AROUND 15KFT
OR HIGHER. BUT OF NOTE, SHOULD THE NEBRASKA CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SOME LOWER
CEILINGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KSTJ. HOWEVER, THAT PROBABILITY
IS LOW AT THIS POINT SO NO MENTIONS WITHIN THE TAF.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ028>033-037-
038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ039-040-
043>046-053-054.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ011>015-020>023.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-103>105.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CURTIS
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