009
FXUS63 KEAX 150620
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
120 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. TRAINING
STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE US-36 CORRIDOR.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
GENERALLY BETWEEN THE IA/MO STATE LINE AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOLLOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF A NOW 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AGAINST THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO AND
EASTERN KS. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS
THE CWA WITH A GRADIENT OF PWATS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM THE I-70
CORRIDOR UP THROUGH THE IA/MO BORDER, RESPECTIVELY. STORMS CLUSTERS
ARE ALREADY SHOWING THE TENDENCY TO CONGEAL AND TRAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT LACKING ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-36. A SEVERE THREAT DOES
STILL EXIST, ALBEIT MARGINAL, WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE, BUT FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED TRAINING AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. BACKBUILDING WILL CEASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DECAYS LATER THIS
MORNING. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER BRIEFLY AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE COMING TO AN END MID/LATE MORNING.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA FOR
MUCH OF TODAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HEAT PRODUCTS IN EFFECT
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF US-36
AND SOUTH. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO. MAX HEAT INDICES COULD SIT AROUND
105F SOUTH OF THE RIVER WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F FURTHER NORTH,
BUT THIS FORECAST WILL BE SENSITIVE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD
COVER.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN. NORTHERN MO ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS (50-70% CHANCE), THOUGH THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL MO. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE PASSAGE TO OCCUR BY
SUNRISE, LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS (HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 80S) AREAWIDE, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST A SLOWER PROGRESSION
THAT LEADS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DIVIDING THE CWA (LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH VERSUS LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH). NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE TIMING UNCERTAINTY HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, HEAVY SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR
VISIBILITY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING. STJ
AND THE KC METRO TAFS ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH,
SO WILL NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. STJ IF THE TAF SITE WITH
THE MOSTLY LIKELY THUNDER POTENTIAL. STJ AND THE KC METRO TAF
SITES MAY SEE BRIEF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY BETWEEN 06-08Z
OVERNIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ011>015-
020>025.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ003>008-
013>017-022>025.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-
057-060-103>105.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...KRULL
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