616
FXUS63 KEAX 151927
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
BROAD 500-HPA RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED OUT JUST A BIT OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OR SO. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE NOTED MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE RIPPLE BEING
LOCATED OVER EASTERN NE, NORTHEASTERN KS, NORTHWESTERN MO, AND
WESTERN IA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SUPER IMPACTFUL, THE SHOWERS, AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOWARDS THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED MID-TO-UPPER 90S. AS
SUCH, HAVE CAPPED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW-90S NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, HEAT INDICES NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW-100S THIS
AFTERNOON, SO THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SOUTH OF THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND AND ABOVE
105F, SO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS POINT
FOR ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, MOST CAMS DEPICT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO AS THE LLJ
INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM(50-70% CHANCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER), THEY WILL HAVE 2500-3500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS, SO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. THIS DOES NOT
MEAN SEVERE WEATHER IS IMPOSSIBLE AS STORMS MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS AS THEY PULSE UP AND DOWN, SO STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PWATS ALSO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 2-2.5", WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BENEATH THE STRONGEST CORES. THIS PRESENTS A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT, PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PUSHING
THROUGH THE KC METRO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING TOMORROW BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO LOW-80S FURTHER NORTH. A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (25-35% CHANCE) ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO
NEAR ZERO ON MONDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WITH THE COLD
FRONT HAVING FULLY EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS BRIEF BENIGN
PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE STILL EXIST
BETWEEN MODEL SUITES (BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE). HOWEVER,
A GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE PRESENT REGARDING THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
AND 25-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
THIS PARAMETER SPACE POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS THINKING IS
REFLECTED IN THE SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK, WHICH HAS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH MOST POINT TOWARDS A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, BUT
TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE OPTED TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP IN TAFS AT KMCI, KMKC, AND KSTJ. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KIXD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (5-10 KTS)
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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