127
FXUS63 KEAX 172021
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
- STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED TUESDAY LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY SITS UNDERNEATH IT WHICH HAS PRESENTED THE MILD WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS
OVER THE ROCKIES THOUGH THAT WILL RESULT IN DCVA OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS, WITH PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STARTING ON TUESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS SURFACE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF KANSAS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN PROGGED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORT-WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE POSITIONED ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, AND PROVIDE STRONGER THETA-E
TRANSPORT, RESULTING IN INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION
OVER THE PLAINS, WHETHER OR NOT IT DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES
DOWNSTREAM, IS LARGELY GOING TO DETERMINE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. CURRENT CAM
GUIDANCE HAS THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEBRASKA DECAYING
BEFORE REACHING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER, THIS STARTS TO SEND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, THAT COULD
PROVIDE FURTHER INITIATION DOWNSTREAM. IF ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP TRY
AND ORGANIZE IT. HOWEVER, VERY UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CAPE WILL BE THERE
IN THE PRESENCE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POTENTIAL. FROM THE 12Z
HREF, MUCAPE VALUES PRIOR TO 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
MUCH ABOVE 750 J/KG. CIRRUS CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA MAY SLOW THE RATE DESTABILIZATION INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, BUT WITH A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT IS ANY AT ALL. WE WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
INSTABILITY TRENDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS ABLE TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE, TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE ROBUST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TUESDAY EVENING, AND HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO PROVIDE MORE BROADSCALE
LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE THETA-E ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD HELP BUMP UP CAPE VALUES
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE TIMING STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND OCCURRENCE
STILL CONDITIONAL, AS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LOOKS TO LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 23-01Z IN THE EVENING,
LARGELY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE VORT MAXIMA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE AXIS OF INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, WHAT IS
UNCERTAIN IS IF STORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED, OR IF THEY WILL BECOME
MORE ELEVATED. CENTRAL KANSAS AND AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AND DISCRETE CONVECTION
AFTER PEAK HEATING. UNSURE IF DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE
AND SURFACE BASED AFTER 00Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST,
BACKING SURFACE WINDS AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CAN FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THERE IS ENOUGH SRH THAT COULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT, ALONG WITH HEALTHY MID-LEVEL CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWING FOR LARGER HAIL STONES, AND THE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEM TO FAVOR THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
THREAT IF IT IS REALIZED, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL STORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 IS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. IF THE DISCRETE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE
AREA, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL ANY STORM ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS INTO AN MCS. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS
IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUPPORT TO
HELP ORGANIZE AN MCS AND MAINTAIN A HEALTHY BALANCE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS AND MCS EXPANSION. AS A RESULT, EVEN IF
STORMS ARE MORE ELEVATED, STRONGER COLD POOLS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DEPENDING ON THE HOW THE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT
CONVERGENCE ZONE ORIENTS TO THE STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR, MAY FAVOR
MESOVORTEX GENERATION AND SOME QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THIS
IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON HOW AN MCS PROPAGATES, AND HOW LONG IT IS
MAINTAINED. UNCERTAINTY IN ITS MAINTENANCE INCREASES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET BETTER HANDLE ON HOW LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE, ONCE WE SEE HOW ACTIVITY OCCURS AFTER 12Z
ON TUESDAY. WITH RESPECT HYDRO, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS
SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TUESDAY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH
EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LEFT-OVER MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT COULD CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. H5 RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT DISTURBANCES OVER CANADA MAY
SEND DOWN A FEW MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA THROUGH THE WEEK THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS MILD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TOMORROW,
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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