282
FXUS63 KEAX 182338
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
SHOWER AND STORM COMPLEX THAT DROPPED SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA
TODAY HAS A LARGE ROLE IN HOW THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT HAS EVOLVED
TODAY. THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIMITED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER'S ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH STOPPED THE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA THAT
HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS REMAINED PRESENT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING THE SURFACE CYCLONE TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE DAY AND EXTEND PRESSURE FALLS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE WASHED OUT OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WINDS ARE NOW RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AFTER BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE SERIES OF OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO RESTART THETA-E
ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT, MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI REMAINS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES, WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LATE/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AS OF 20Z
IS SHOWING CLEARING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS, PERHAPS AN SMALL
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NEXT FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INSTABILITY AXIS TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE FLINT HILLS.
AREAS FURTHER EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE, AT LEAST WITH
RESPECT TO MLCAPE AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE PARCELS. AS THE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SET TO RAMP UP AS WELL. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH CURRENT INSTABILITY
TRENDS, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CI MORE IN EASTERN KS, BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SOME
CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO GO AS EARLY AS 00Z IN CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA, MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 03-04Z FOR EXPANSION. THIS
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CI WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM MODE, AS
WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. GIVEN THAT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE CAPE TO DEVELOP IN OUR EASTERN
KANSAS COUNTIES OVER TO CENTRAL MISSOURI, THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO KANSAS, JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SUPERCELLS MAY BE ABLE TO TRAVEL EASTWARD,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY LATCH ONTO THE COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY HITTING
OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND MAY GET CLOSE TO THE KC METRO. IF A SUPERCELL
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL (IN EXCESS OF 2") IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG RFD WINDS. IF THE SUPERCELL REMAINS SURFACE BASED, IT
WILL PRESENT A TORNADO THREAT, THOUGH THAT THREAT SEEMS TO DIMINISH
THE FURTHER EAST OF THE KS FLINT HILLS (GIVEN THAT 0-3KM CAPE WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY AND LIMITED STRETCHING POTENTIAL). THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF KINEMATIC SUPPORT EVEN INTO CENTRAL MO, BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN QUESTION. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ARE EXPECTED TO CURVE, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SRH COULD EASILY EXCEED 150 M^2/S^2. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS. WHILE
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT MAY HAVE ELEVATED BASES, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS, WITH PLENTY OF
WIND SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE THE ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG COLD POOLS THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG NEGATIVE
BUOYANCY SUPPORTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME NEAR
70 MPH. NEW CORES MAY BRIEFLY POSE A HAIL THREAT BEFORE CONGEALING
WITH OTHER CELLS OR BEING INGESTED INTO AN MCS. THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ATTEMPTING TO SUPPORT MESO VORTEX
GENERATION IF THE MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR, BUT UNSURE IF 0-
3KM CAPE WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HELP WITH STRETCHING THAT TO THE
SURFACE TO PRESENT ANY QLCS TORNADO THREAT. THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY
IS FAVORED BETWEEN 1A-5A OVERNIGHT (06Z-10Z). WHERE A MATURE MCS
TRACKS AND PROPAGATES STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS THIS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHERE THE BEST CAPE AXIS CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STEERING
FLOW, THIS IS LIKELY TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BUT AT
WHAT POINT DOES IT START TO TAKE ON THIS MOTION REMAINS THE MAIN THE
QUESTIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 12Z.
RAINFALL AND HYDROLOGICALLY SPEAKING, A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 12Z HREF PMM FIELD DOES HAVE A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. BUT, THE 12Z HREF MEMBERS DID NOT HANDLE
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY WELL, AND THEREFORE, HAVING A HARD TIME
PUTTING CONFIDENCE INTO ITS OUTPUT. WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE, WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS
WOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE, HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD BACK
FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. IF THERE IS MORE BACK BUILDING THOUGH
THAT OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT, OR INDIVIDUAL CELLS TAKE ON A TRAINING
PATTERN, WOULD INCREASE THE QPF THAT COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCATION WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW THE HYDRO
SITUATION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTH-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 18Z-21Z, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
UNSURE WHAT KIND OF INSTABILITY WE WILL SEE, ESPECIALLY IF THE
BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 18Z HRRR THOUGH, DOES SHOW
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO GET SURFACE BASED PARCELS, AND
ENOUGH SHEAR TO TRY AND ORGANIZE CONVECTION. PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE, BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY, CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR HOW REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
ELSEWHERE, LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING FRONT, WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT
FROM THE NEXT H5 SHORT-WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THOUGH MAY RIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW, WHICH WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DOWNTOWN TERMINALS REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
WITH A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER KSTJ FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF A TEMPO FOR POTENTIAL
-SHRA AS WEATHER DECAYS. STILL EXPECTING A CLUSTER OF TSRA TO
MOVE THROUGH TERMINALS AROUND 4Z TONIGHT, WITH SHRA BEHIND THE
CLUSTER PERSISTING THROUGH 9-10Z TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TAF CATEGORIES BASED ON
PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS (DEGRADING CEILINGS/VIS TO MVFR WITH
TSRA). ELSE, FURTHER WEATHER/CATEGORICAL IMPACTS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT DOWNTOWN TERMINALS PAST 10Z TOMORROW. GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI, WHICH COULD IMPACT KSTJ. HOWEVER, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...SPG
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