801
FXUS63 KEAX 191118
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MORE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM OSKALOOSA, KS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PILOT
GROVE, MO. UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND AMPLE DCAPE STILL PROMOTE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AS OF
WRITING, STORMS ARE PROGRESSING JUST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE MOST
FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS AS RADAR QPE SHOW AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ATCHISON (KS) AND LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE KC METRO. STORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS;
ENDING BY MIDDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PIVOTS TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH HELP USHER A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD. THIS BRINGS ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MO RIVER. AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR DO PRESENT A MARGINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM; HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA ONCE THIS CURRENT
COMPLEX ROLES THROUGH. ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT ALL IT DOES IS DELAY THE WARMING TREND THAT ARRIVES LATER
THIS WEEK AS BROADSCALE RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE STALLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
PUTTING OUR CWA IN THE NW FLOW OF THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
SYNOPTIC RIDGE. THIS OPENS UP FLOW TO ALLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO
PASS OVER THE REGION PRESENTING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SLOWLY SLIDES
THIS HIGH TO THE EAST SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRETCH
OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST (>75%), THOUGH
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
KSTJ TERMINAL. HAVE REMOVED AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES FOR THE
TERMINALS. RIGHT NOW, THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH (<20%)
AT THE TERMINALS TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A TREND
TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...CDB
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