543
FXUS63 KEAX 031726
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREES RANGE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED
LATE SEASON HEAT. THIS HEAT WILL CONTINUE COME COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER SINCE THIS
PAST WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE, HOWEVER, WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH WILL
YIELD DEWPOINTS IN THE 100-107 RANGE. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH WILL
AGAIN YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-107 RANGE. SATURDAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S TO OVER 100. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN KEEP HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-107.
SUNDAY, A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE ACTING TO TEMPORARILY FLATTEN IT AND BRING THE CHANCE (15-30%)
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO "COOL" A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TO THE LOWER 90S WHILE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
ACHIEVE THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA PROLONGING THE HEAT WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
BEYOND TUESDAY THAT LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN PLAINS
KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA. THE EC IS STRONGER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND BRINGING HE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
IN REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AND, DUE TO THE DURATION OF THE HEAT BEING GREATER THAN FOR DAYS IT
MAY NEED TO BE CONVERTED INTO A EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. REMNANT
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
AND EVENING, ENABLING A SKC FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SW AT 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS UNTIL SUNSET.
AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL STAY CONSISTENT OUT OF THE S AND SW
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 7-10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ020>022-
028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-023>025-032-033.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BJORK/KRULL
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