062
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY AREA WIDE
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH MO TO
BOONVILLE MO
- VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE CURRENT
AND PROLONGED HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. SO, KEEPING THE TAKE HOME POINT
SIMPLE ... THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW DAYS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC OR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE/FEW DAYS REMAINS WELL SIGNALED AMONG THE FLAGSHIP
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLES. THIS TAKES
THE EXISTING OMEGA-BLOCK LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND REALLY JUST SQUATS
IT OVER THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MORE SUBTLE EVOLUTION
WILL SEE THE CENTRAL RIDGE AXIS DRIFT/RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFY AS THE EASTERN CUTOFF LOW CHURNS DOWN INTO/AROUND NEW
ENGLAND AND THE PNW CUTOFF STRUGGLES TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY. ASIDE FROM
THE CONTINUED HEAT, THIS TOO CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND TENDING TO BE REPEATS
OF THE LAST COUPLE/FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER UP TO AROUND
105. ALL OF THIS IS BOLSTERED BY VERY TIGHT ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS SEEN ACROSS VARIOUS VISUALIZATION TOOLS. NO CHANGES TO THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING GIVEN THE ABOVE.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THERE REMAINS SIGNALED SOME RELIEF FOR N/NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
(RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST) AND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PUSHES HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. UNFORTUNATELY, RELIEF QUICKLY PETERS OUT AND LEAVES AREAS S AND
W OF A LINE FROM AROUND MARYVILLE MO TO BOONVILLE MO LEFT
BAKING IN HEAT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONFIDENT IN
THAT HEAT WITH NBM PROBABILITIES >70-90 PERCENT FOR HIGHS OF 95
DEG F OR GREATER FOR LOCATIONS LIKE ST. JOSEPH, KANSAS CITY AND
PROBABILITIES OF 60 PERCENT OR GREATER AS FAR EAST OF
BROOKFIELD, MOBERLY, AND COLUMBIA. WITH A SIMILAR STORY PLAYING
OUT MONDAY, THIS HELPS ALLOW N/NE AREAS OF THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING TO EXPIRE SATURDAY.
MONDAY/TUESDAY, THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF LOW FLATTENING THE RIDGE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEFORE IT IS
ABLE TO POSSIBLY BRING ABOUT APPRECIABLE TEMPERATURE RELIEF, LATER
IN THE WEEK, TUESDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE AS IT
PUSHES 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. A HANDFUL OF 100S MAY
BE POSSIBLE. THIS TOO RESULTS IN THESE AREAS REMAINING IN AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MID-LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO MAKE IT.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD, APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABUNDANTLY HARD TO COME BY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE S TO SW THROUGHOUT, INCLUDING SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KTS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS FROM MID-MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS EASE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERALL WINDS
EASE BACK TO AROUND 5 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ020>022-
028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-023>025-032-033.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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